With America in retreat and China on the rise, is a cold war on the way?

President Donald Trump has pulled the US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal. This is another addition to a line of international agreements from which the US has withdrawn since Trump took office, joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris climate agreement. It is an indication of isolationist behaviour not usually exhibited by international leaders and community members.     

In response, other countries have begun pulling away from the United States in kind. The president of the European Commission responded to Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran deal with heavy criticism, going so far as to say the EU should “replace” the US in world leadership. The US, he said, has “lost vigour and because of it, in the long term, influence.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised the commissioner’s statement, adding that the EU could no longer rely on the US for “protection” and that European countries would be drawn closer together.     

Certainly European leaders like Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron would like to step into that role of Western leadership. But a gap in Western leadership – traditionally balanced against Asia-Pacific power like China or Japan – leaves a space for another country to expand its own influence, not just in the region, but also in the world. And as American power wanes, Chinese power grows. 

After years of rapid growth, China’s economy has not yet hit a debt ceiling that is dangerous to expanding economies. While the People’s Liberation Army is not yet a fully modernised military, rapid gains are being made in that arena, too. President Xi Jinping has set a goal to have a fully modernised military by 2035. With the largest population on Earth and its second-largest defence budget, China could make serious military advances in that time.     

Last month, China staged a massive naval exercise in the South China Sea. This can only be taken as a warning or sign of aggression towards Taiwan and regional powers like the US, which has trade routes and diplomatic relations with Asean nations.