Is Beijing seeking a ‘grand bargain’ with New Delhi in the Indian Ocean?
- In countering India’s efforts to dominate South Asian waters, China may be seeking a grand bargain: allow each side control over their respective littorals – the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea – and the maintenance of respective constabulary presences
As the presence of Chinese research ships and fishing fleets grows in the Indian Ocean, India’s Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Karambir Singh, has warned against “any maritime activity that deviates from the norm or rule-based order, that can cause regional instability”.
Speaking at the Raisina dialogue in New Delhi last month, he added that “if there is anything that impinges on our national interest or sovereignty, we will have to act”.
It is not unusual for foreign research vessels to operate in India’s near seas. American survey ships have occasionally conducted information-gathering operations in Indian-administered waters, leading New Delhi to protest.
Rarely, however, have Indian denouncements of foreign maritime activity been as vocal as in the case of Shiyan-1. Chinese officials insisted the vessel “was conducting acoustic propagation experiments and hydrologic environment measurements on the high seas of the Indian Ocean … and only sailed through the Indian EEZ on the way to and from the experimental area”.
There is some evidence to back this hypothesis. First, Chinese deployments in India’s neighbourhood mainly involve civilian research and survey vessels that have mostly stayed clear of Indian-administered waters. On the rare occasion that a Chinese vessel entered India’s EEZ, it has avoided Indian island outposts.
Second, unlike in the South China Sea, where China has sought to dominate, Beijing has been respectful of Indian interests in the Bay of Bengal. Chinese warships have not challenged Indian sovereignty or approached Indian territory with malignant intent. Nor have Chinese vessels impeded the passage of Indian merchants in the regional sea lanes.
To this end, China’s naval leadership has ramped up civilian vessel presence in the Indian Ocean, but scaled back on its warship presence in the Bay of Bengal. There have also been fewer Chinese submarine sightings close to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands recently, an indication that the Chinese navy does not want to be seen as an aggressor in India’s near seas.
It seems that what China really wants is a “grand bargain” that would allow itself and India to exert some control over their regional littorals – the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea – with neither side attempting to impede the other’s maritime trade and economic activity.
Furthermore, China seeks an understanding with India to allow each other to maintain, in their presumed spheres of dominance, constabulary presences necessitated by their economic interests. This understanding would probably not extend to the Arabian Sea and Western Indian Ocean, spaces that China regards as more politically neutral.
Abhijit Singh is a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi