Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has set out to follow the Abe administration’s policies. Since taking office, Suga has held phone conversations with US President Donald Trump and the leaders of two US allies, Australia and South Korea. But he needs to focus on the recovery of an economy hit hard by Covid-19. And to revitalise Japan’s economy, he will have to strengthen its pro-China diplomacy.
Suga made a name for himself as chief cabinet secretary. At the same time, he was the minister in charge of reducing the burden on Okinawa for hosting US military bases, and he pushed for the return of part of the land used for the US military’s Northern Training Area. It was also his decision for Japan to acquire Mageshima island in Kagoshima for US aircraft carrier landing practice. When Suga visited Washington in May last year, he was warmly welcomed by both US Vice-President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
In July, the United Arab Emirates, a strong ally of the US, launched a mission to Mars from Japan. Japan is in negotiations to export arms to India and others, but these plans will only be realised if Tokyo maintains a close alliance with Washington.
At the same time, as part of Abenomics, Japan has a policy aim of boosting tourism and increasing consumption by inbound tourists, which depend on having a good relationship with China.
Diplomacy is about preserving national interests. As prime minister, Shinzo Abe made the right move initiating dialogue with many other countries. Suga’s role is to implement his predecessor’s diplomacy. It is not easy, but his experience could help him succeed.
I first learned of his existence in a discussion in 1997 with then prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, who was pushing for a full-scale disposal of non-performing loans in Japan. Thus, Suga has had experience with reforms. He is a sober, reform-minded realist.
Japanese political watchers expect both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to lean on Suga to choose between the US and China as a core partner, amid the so-called new cold war. They don’t think Japan can continue with its opportunistic dual diplomacy any longer.
But I believe Suga can work it out. Sure, there are many issues to tackle, such as the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands dispute with China, trade negotiations with the US, and emotional conflicts with South Korea. But Suga, described by Columbia political science professor Gerald Curtis as “Mr Fix-it”, is the man for the job.
Suga’s carefully chosen cabinet line-up is intended to serve his policy goals. It consists of three groups. Firstly, there is a pro-US faction comprising 10 ministers, or about half the cabinet, including Taro Kono and Shinjiro Koizumi.Minister of Defence Nobuo Kishi, who is Abe’s brother, will also challenge any decisions that disfavour the US or Taiwan.
Secondly, eight ministers make up the group that independently supports the prime minister and his foreign policy decisions. They include Hiroshi Kajiyama and Hachiro Okonogi, a former chairman of the National Public Safety Commission.
Then there is Toshihiro Nikai, the powerful and now longest-serving secretary general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. He is the most pro-China politician in Japan. At the same time, he aims to promote good relations with South Korea.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) shakes hands with Japanese politician Toshihiro Nikai, kingmaker of the Liberal Democratic Party, at a China-Japan friendship exchange meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in 2015. Photo: Reuters
Given the numerical strength of the pro-US faction, it seems the cabinet is likely to take a hard line against China. Yet, many LDP lawmakers who emphasise relationships with Japanese companies that do business in China rely on Nikai in elections.
Furthermore, the LDP’s coalition partner, the Komeito party, has made peace a party policy. Komeito has a history of promoting ties with Beijing, even before Japan normalised diplomatic relations with China in 1972. Both Nikai and Komeito will prevent Suga from swinging too far towards the US too quickly.
What are some of the difficulties Suga has to overcome? Visits to the Yasukuni Shrine remain a lightning rod. A year into his second stint as prime minister, Abe visited the shrine in December 2013; but he didn’t go there a second time during his tenure, to avoid criticism from China and South Korea. In 2013, then US vice-president Joe Biden had reportedly asked Abe not to visit the shrine; afterwards, Washington severely criticised the visit, even going as far as to say it was “disappointed”.
For the Abe administration, which was working hard to facilitate then US president Barack Obama’s visit to Hiroshima, Washington’s reaction was humiliating.
The Abe administration’s unfinished tasks include revising the constitution, acquiring attack capabilities against enemy bases and reviewing plans for Aegis Ashore missile defence systems. There is no doubt that Kishi will resume discussions in earnest on these priorities, except with regard to the constitutional amendment.
Suga is well aware that the longevity of the Abe administration is attributable to the low unemployment rate. He understands that his urgent priority is to deliver economic benefits to the Japanese quickly – for example, by reducing mobile phone service fees – ahead of the next general election that must be held by October next year.
Suppose he wins the general election: in that case, there is almost no doubt that Suga will strengthen relations with China and focus on reviving the economy damaged by Covid-19.
Although maintaining relations with the US – and therefore a balance between the US and China – is always of utmost importance, Suga knows that if Trump wins the presidential election in November, US-China tensions will ease. The US-China trade balance problem can be resolved since China is buying more food and grain. Their other problems are technology competition and human rights issues. These are not problems that will go away immediately, but tensions will be lower.
Therefore, I am almost certain Suga can find a way to improve business relations with China and accelerate an economic recovery, while avoiding conflict with the US. And if the Democratic Party nominee Biden wins the White House, Japan won’t have to worry because a Biden administration is likely to be a pro-China administration.
Yoshihiro Sakai is adviser to the Office of the President at the University of Tokyo. He is a former market operation officer at the Bank of Japan and a senior economist
