Hong Kong must not be misled about the unneeded Lantau Tomorrow Vision

With the proposal for the Lantau project, the Hong Kong government is either misleading the public, or guilty of magical thinking. It seems to believe residents can move in eight years after such a complex project begins

Tom Yam

Published: 12:50pm, 25 Nov 2020

Why you can trust SCMP

Fooling some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time seems to be the government’s approach in pushing for the Lantau Tomorrow Vision project.

Former chief executive Leung Chun-ying proposed the project then known as East Lantau Metropolis in his 2014 policy address. That plan for 1,000 hectares of reclaimed land has evolved into a 1,700-hectare project, renamed Lantau Tomorrow Vision and presented by Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor in her 2018 policy address.

At a cost of HK$624 billion (HK$1 trillion by the time construction begins in 2025) and with a feasibility study that will cost HK$550 million, it will be the most expensive infrastructure project in the history of Hong Kong, surpassing the combined cost of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, the third airport runway and the high-speed rail link to Guangzhou. Yet, between 2014 and now, the government’s case for the Lantau project was presented with such shoddy analysis that it would be laughed out of any investment community should the government want to seek funding for it.

The most egregious claim is that the Lantau project is necessary to ease Hong Kong’s land shortage, meet the population’s housing needs, and promote economic growth. The project will not meet short-term housing needs since it will be at least 12 years before residents can move in. According to the census report in September, Hong Kong’s population of 7.5 million will peak at 8.1 million in 2041, before decreasing to 7.3 million in 2069. That’s an increase of 600,000 at the most.

02:43

Why Carrie Lam’s Lantau land reclamation plan is so controversial

The government has already identified five sites that will provide housing for 712,300 residents. They are Tung Chung New Town Extension and four New Development Areas in Yuen Long South, Kam Tin South, Hung Shui Kiu, and New Territories North. Construction has begun in Tung Chung and Hung Shui Kiu. In all, 25 identified sites will provide about 240,000 public housing units, which are now in various stages of design and construction. Feasibility studies are being conducted for 18 other sites.

In addition, the government has identified 1,414 hectares of brownfield sites, 450 hectares of which have potential for public housing development. It is estimated that 63 hectares can provide 20,000 public housing units; more will be planned.

Currently, there are 156,400 general applications for public rental housing, and about 103,600 non-elderly one-person applications; their needs can be met by the planned public housing development.

No better time for Hong Kong to launch a major housing plan

Private developers are sitting on 1,000 hectares of undeveloped land. Sixty hectares of land that are unlikely to be needed for a Disneyland extension can be earmarked for housing. A few developers have kindly offered land for transitional housing. Furthermore, some 2,000 hectares of land held and lightly used by the People’s Liberation Army might be freed up if the Hong Kong and central governments can reach agreement about how to meet Hong Kong’s housing and development needs.

There is simply no need for Lantau Vision Tomorrow. The 2030 Plus strategy concluded that Hong Kong would need 1,200 hectares of extra land. The Task Force on Land Supply called that figure an underestimation. The think tank Our Hong Kong Foundation, established by former chief executive Tung Chee-hwa, has claimed that the city needs 9,000 hectares.

In August 2018, it proposed an enhanced East Lantau Metropolis of 2,200 hectares. Mysteriously, months later, Lam announced the 1,700-hectare Lantau Tomorrow Vision: 1,700 is a number about halfway between 1,000 and 2,200.

04:11

Tiny 290sq ft temporary housing a welcome upgrade for some low-income Hong Kong families

The most glaring misinformation is the government’s characterisation of the HK$550 million study as an impact study. It is in fact a planning and engineering study, which is the last step before construction begins. Of the HK$550 million requested, HK$350 million is for engineering design.

The government’s most magical thinking is that the Lantau project will begin to be populated by 2033, a mere eight years after construction begins. This is a pace that has not been achieved at far less complex land-based development projects such as Tung Chung Extension and Hung Shui Kiu. With regard to Lantau, not only are artificial islands of 1,000 hectares being proposed, an entire transport network will have to constructed – road and rail connecting the islands to the rest of Hong Kong, and sea crossings.

Seldom has so complex and risky a project costing so much been presented with so much misinformation to the public. Without allowing a rigorous due diligence analysis conducted by an independent professional body, and with a majority of pro-government lawmakers in the Legislative Council all but guaranteeing approval for the project, perhaps the government is hoping to fool all of the people all of the time.

Tom Yam is an independent management consultant and a member of the Citizens Task Force on Land Resources, a group of professionals dedicated to broadening and facilitating the debate on critical issues including sustainable development, the optimal uses of land, and the conservation of resources

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