A worker adjusts the Brunei flag before the 22nd Asean coordinating council meeting on the sidelines of the 33rd Asean summit in Singapore in November 2018. Photo: AP
Opinion
Opinion
by Richard Heydarian
Opinion
by Richard Heydarian
Why Biden has been a disappointment to Southeast Asia so far
While Asean policymakers and thought leaders welcomed Biden’s election, four months into his presidency, Southeast Asian nations feel they have been largely frozen out by Washington
In contrast, Chinese leaders have maintained robust communications with their regional counterparts
“They had learned nothing and forgotten nothing,” French diplomat Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord once reportedly lamented in response to the House of Bourbon’s inability to learn from even recent history. Soon, France was gripped by another revolution, led by Napoleon Bonaparte’s nephew, which swept away the ancien régime for good.
Two centuries later, the world’s reigning superpower has exhibited a similar inability to learn from even what it remembers perfectly. And it’s in Southeast Asia where this dynamic of benign neglect and strategic amnesia is on full display.
After four years of Trumpian disruption, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations policy elite welcomed Joe Biden’s victory. According to a survey by the Singapore-based ISEAS Yusof-Ishak Institute, 61.5 per cent of Southeast Asian respondents preferred aligning with the United States over China, reflecting how the region’s “support for Washington may have increased as a result of the prospects of the new Biden Administration.”
This unusually high level of optimism was not entirely unfounded. The return of veteran diplomats and former Obama administration officials, raised hope of a renewed “golden age” of US-Asean relations. Four months into Biden’s presidency, however, Southeast Asian nations feel they have been largely frozen out by Washington.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo (centre) delivers his press statement following the Asean Leaders’ Meeting at the Asean Secretariat in Jakarta on April 24. Photo: Indonesian Presidential Palace via AP
From the outset, the Biden administration placed Asia at the centre of its foreign policy agenda. This was partly a reflection of the region’s growing economic importance, as well as America’s determination to pivot away from traditional theatres such as the Middle East.
But this was also about Washington’s anxieties over the rise of China, especially as Covid-19 ravaged the American economy. In a speech to a joint session of Congress, Biden reflected America’s growing strategic anxieties, noting, “We’re in a competition with China and other countries to win the 21st century.”
So one would have expected the Biden administration to proactively court Southeast Asian nations. So far, the opposite has happened.
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China ‘closing in fast’, says US President Joe Biden in first address to Congress
China ‘closing in fast’, says US President Joe Biden in first address to Congress
The first shock came with the US’ unprecedented decision to largely omit long-standing allies, the Philippines and Thailand, from its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. Instead, there was only generic reference to Asean among a plethora of other regional partners.
Dating back to the Nixon administration, practically all US presidents placed Southeast Asian allies at the heart of their global strategy. In contrast, the Biden administration has been busy consolidating existing alliances in Europe, troubleshooting conflicts in the Middle East and institutionalising the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Australia, India and Japan.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has held many meetings with his counterparts across the world. But it wasn’t until last month that he held a virtual meeting with Asean diplomats. During the hastily-organised meeting, with Blinken scrambling for an overnight flight from Europe to the Middle East, Southeast Asian diplomats were left staring at a blank screen for 45 minutes.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin was due to attend the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, but the event was cancelled following the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in the city state.
Having concluded in-person summits with counterparts in Japan and South Korea, Biden has seemingly snubbed most of his Southeast Asian counterparts. The US president contacted his Filipino counterpart only recently, following the deadlock in negotiations over the restoration of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which facilitates a large-scale American military presence in the country.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte shows boxes of Sinovac Covid-19 vaccines in Manila on March 29, after the country received the first batch bought from China. Under Duterte, the Philippines has pivoted towards China. Photo: Xinhua
In contrast, top Chinese leaders have maintained robust communications with their Southeast Asian counterparts. To bolster the country’s “health silk road”, Foreign Minister Wang Yi is meeting his Asean counterparts this week.
In fairness, the Biden administration has tried to make up to its Southeast Asian partners in recent days. The US president is expected to personally attend the Asean summit later this year, while Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman has just concluded her maiden visit to Southeast Asia.
Three fundamental issues, however, have complicated Biden’s Asean diplomacy. The first is the authoritarian drift across Southeast Asia.
While Biden has presented his administration as a global defender of democracy, authoritarian leaders across Southeast Asia have become more irritable about any criticism of their human rights record. The upshot is mutual strategic estrangement.
Moreover, Washington seems increasingly irked by Asean’s unwillingness to take decisive action on major regional crises. Following the February coup in Myanmar, the regional body has refrained from suspending the country’s membership, while blocking even modest sanctions against the junta. If anything, Asean has legitimised the junta by welcoming its top leaders to high-level regional meetings.
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Head of Myanmar’s military junta Min Aung Hlaing appears in online Asean conference
Head of Myanmar’s military junta Min Aung Hlaing appears in online Asean conference
But perhaps China is the biggest source of disagreement between the Biden administration and Asean. Practically all Southeast Asian leaders, apart from Vietnam, have refrained from overtly aligning with Washington against Beijing.
Crucially, the Philippines and Thailand have pivoted towards China. Asean has pushed back against any US-led “Asian Nato” or containment strategy against China.
The Biden administration may have a far better sense of history than its Trumpian predecessor, but it faces a steep learning curve in winning over Southeast Asian nations.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of “Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for the Western Pacific” and the forthcoming “Duterte’s Rise”
