Ukraine war: Volodymyr Zelensky securing US Patriot defence system will shift balance but not end fighting

Because of its long range and high-altitude capability, the Patriot system can shoot down Russian missiles and aircraft far from their targets
Ukraine having the Patriot system will change the complexion of the war, but changes in US politics and Russian tactics mean an end to the war is not in sight

Imran Khalid

Published: 1:00am, 30 Dec 2022

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“The Patriot air defence is outdated. An antidote will always be found … Russia will knock down the Patriot system,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said while reacting to the reports about the Biden administration’s decision to supply the Patriot system to Ukraine. Putin appears to be anxious over the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington that paved the way to more financial and military support to Kyiv.

Zelensky’s much-touted visit to Washington was astutely planned ahead of January 3, when the Republicans will assume control of the US House of Representatives. It was part of a plan to resurrect US public opinion as well as influence the US Congress in favour of Ukraine to secure almost US$45 billion in support for the Ukrainian resistance against the Russian invasion.

There is no doubt that Zelensky played his part well during his visit to the United States. His theatrics – including his khaki fatigues and presentation to Congress of a Ukrainian flag signed by frontline Ukrainian soldiers – generated support and sympathy in the US for the Ukrainian people who have been courageously fighting the invading Russian troops.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (right) and US Vice-President Kamala Harris hold open a Ukrainian flag presented to them by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as he delivers an address at a joint meeting of the US Congress in Washington on December 21. Photo: ZUMA Press Wire / dpa

Being a media-savvy person who has successfully carved the image of a wartime leader, Zelensky is using all the tricks of the trade to evoke public sympathy globally – especially among the US public – to ensure weapons and money are supplied to his country without any interruption.

Putin, on the other hand, is in distress for different reasons. In the last two months, Russian forces have ground to a halt and not been able to make significant advances inside Ukrainian territory. In particular, the fiascos of Kharkiv and Bakhmut have exposed the vulnerability and inefficiency of the Russian forces.

Russia’s image as a military superpower and robust fighting force is practically shattered. Western analysts appear to be right in portraying Russia’s military as an ill-disciplined fighting machine that is equipped with obsolete weapons and supported by an antiquated supply chain and logistical support.

Morale in the Russian military is reportedly low, and Russia has lost more soldiers in the last 10 months than the Soviet Union did in nearly a decade of its attempt to invade Afghanistan. It is also true there are major supply chain and logistical hindrances that are impeding the ground operations of the Russian army.

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However, writing off the Russian army altogether as a useless war machine is also an exaggeration. To move further inside Ukrainian territory and maintain control, it needs massive logistical support that is technically difficult to execute. That will put inordinate financial pressure on Russian economy, which is already subject to stringent international sanctions.

Putin, who knows well about these limitations, seems to be content with 20 per cent of Ukrainian land in the southern and eastern parts of the country. Perhaps this was the primary objective of his attack on Ukraine. Further infiltration of Ukrainian territory is not tactically and financially viable for Russia at the moment.

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Perhaps that’s why, with the advent of winter, Putin changed his war strategy in Ukraine. Now he is using the Russian air force to carry out sabotage sorties deep inside Ukrainian territory.

“It is purposefully attacking Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, destroying the systems that provide heat and light to the Ukrainian people during the coldest, darkest part of the year. Russia is using winter as a weapon – freezing people, starving people, cutting them off from one another,” is how US President Joe Biden described Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilians while arguing in favour of supplying the Patriot system to Ukraine.

Zelensky reinforced this point in his address to Congress, saying “The Russians’ tactic is primitive. They burn down and destroy everything they see.” Ukraine’s problem is genuine, and it desperately needs some protective system to counter Russia’s aerial strikes.

Zelensky has long called for more hi-tech military equipment, but the Pentagon has been reluctant to provide it. The Biden administration has held off from providing longer-range artillery, tanks and fighter jets that would allow Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia. US policymakers seem to believe doing so could aggravate the situation and provoke Moscow to initiate a direct conflict with Washington.

Still, securing the Patriot system is a big positive for Ukraine that could change the dynamics of the war. It is widely considered one of the most capable long-range systems to defend airspace against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as some aircraft. Because of its long range and high-altitude capability, it can shoot down Russian missiles and aircraft far from their intended targets inside Ukraine.

German soldiers fire the Patriot weapons system at the Nato Missile Firing Installation in Chania, Greece, on November 8, 2017. Patriot missile systems have long been a hot ticket item for the United States and allies as a coveted shield against incoming missiles. Photo: AP

However, compared to other air defence systems, Patriot missile batteries require larger crews, needing dozens of personnel to properly operate them. The training for Patriot missile batteries normally takes months, a process the US will now expedite given the mounting pressure of Russia’s almost-daily attacks on Ukrainian cities.

The inclusion of the Patriot system will strengthen the Ukrainian defence and discourage Russia from taking the aerial route to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure. Ukraine having the Patriot system is bound to change the complexion of the war, and Zelensky has labelled it as a major shift in the relationship with the US.

The problem for Biden is how to keep the ball rolling when the Republicans in the House start impeding his plans to provide more weapons and money to Ukraine. One thing is clear – the war in Ukraine has no imminent solution in sight.

Imran Khalid is a freelance contributor based in Karachi, Pakistan