A Leopard 2 tank undergoes drills at the Bundeswehr tank battalion 203 at the Field Marshal Rommel Barracks in Augustdorf, Germany, on February 1. An independent Sweden-based watchdog says world military spending has grown for the eighth consecutive year to an all-time high of US$2.24 trillion, with 13 per cent of the rise taking place in Europe, chiefly because of Russian and Ukrainian spending. Photo: AP
Opinion
Imran Khalid
Imran Khalid
How Ukraine war and US opportunism are driving surge in global defence spending
Recent research suggests global military spending rose almost 4 per cent last year as countries react to shifting geopolitical realities
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is driving this surge, the US is using it to spur Nato defence spending and there is likely more increases to come
It seems the purse strings for global military spending are quickly loosening amid the changing geopolitical realities across the globe. According to a report published earlier this month by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, total global military expenditure in 2022 rose 3.7 per cent in real terms, reaching a staggering US$2.24 trillion.
Three immediate inferences can be drawn from this report. First, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the main driving factor behind this surge.
Second, while keeping its military spending expansion at a relatively low 0.7 per cent, the United States has astutely used the war in Ukraine to spur its Nato allies to increase their defence spending, which it struggled to do in the last two decades.
Third, this year is going to see further intensification in military spending, particularly in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. The threat from China is being employed to get regional players such as Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea to increase their military budgets. Meanwhile, military spending in Europe saw its steepest year-on-year increase in 30 years.
It seems the global arms race continues unabated.
For obvious reasons, the war in Ukraine is seen as the main reason behind the sharp rise in the military spending in 2022, particularly in central and western Europe. There is no doubt Russia’s invasion has set off a chain reaction in military spending decisions throughout the continent.
01:57
Australia unveils biggest defence reform in decades, prioritising long-range missiles
Australia unveils biggest defence reform in decades, prioritising long-range missiles
Governments across the region are rolling out multi-year plans to boost their military budgets, signalling a long-term commitment to bolstering their defences in the face of Russian ambitions. The immediate aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine saw some of the sharpest increases in military expenditure in years.
Finland, for instance, increased its spending rise by 36 per cent, while Poland saw its defence spending rise by 11 per cent and Sweden’s by 12 per cent. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, many former Eastern bloc states have enhanced their military spending, preparing for the worst. The Ukraine conflict might have brought these concerns to a boiling point, but the underlying tensions have been bubbling beneath the surface for quite some time.
Aside from many collateral benefits, the Ukraine crisis has provided an opportunity to revive Nato. It has led Europe to push the panic button, and the US was able to secure two tangible benefits out of this situation.
The first was it enabled Nato to bring in new members. The speedy expansion of the transatlantic security alliance towards Finland and Sweden, which are in Russia’s backyard, was unthinkable just a year ago.
Officials attend a flag-raising ceremony after Finland’s accession to Nato, at the Nato headquarters in Brussels, on April 4. Photo: Pool / AFP / Getty Images / TNS
The second is that it enabled Nato to pressure its members to increase their defence spending up to the stipulated 2 per cent of GDP. In 2014, Nato members who had not already done so agreed to increase their individual defence budgets to 2 per cent of their national GDP within a decade. Spending has increased, but in 2022 only seven members met the target – Britain, Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and the US.
Germany announced plans last year to increase its defence spending, but it only expects to meet the 2 per cent target by 2025. As a result, it is reasonable to expect that military expenditure in central and western Europe will keep rising in the years ahead.
While fears about Russian imperialism have existed for generations, the Ukraine conflict undoubtedly had an impact on military budget choices in 2022. According to Sipri’s data, the US, China and Russia were the heaviest hitters last year, together making up about 56 per cent of global military spending.
Russia’s military spending increased by an estimated 9.2 per cent last year to US$86.4 billion, with its 4.1 per cent share of GDP up from 3.7 per cent in 2021. The cost of its invasion of Ukraine has been significantly more than expected, reaching an estimated hundreds of millions of US dollars a day.
The US, the undisputed champion of the global military scene, continues to reign supreme with US$877 billion of military spending in 2022. This amount, representing 39 per cent of last year’s global military spending, is three times the outlay of China, the world’s second-largest spender.
US financial military aid to Ukraine was reportedly US$19.9 billion last year, the highest amount of military aid provided by any country to a single beneficiary since the Cold War.
01:46
Japan to offer military aid to ally nations in historic departure from post-WWII military pacifism
Japan to offer military aid to ally nations in historic departure from post-WWII military pacifism
Japan stands out among Asian countries with its increase in its military spending. Japan ramped up its military spending by 5.9 per cent, bringing its total spending to US$46 billion or 1.1 per cent of its GDP. According to a national security strategy published in 2022, Japan is looking to bolster its military capabilities over the next decade amid growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia.
Japan’s new strategy is ambitious and shows a willingness to invest in its own defence. This increase in military spending is the highest level of Japanese military spending since 1960.
Looking ahead to 2023, there is a strong likelihood of a continued uptick in military spending worldwide, even if the Ukraine crisis is resolved.
Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance contributor based in Karachi, Pakistan
