Why DeSantis is no match for Trump in the race for the Republican presidential nomination
- Awkward and aloof, DeSantis is not seen as being tough or mean enough to take on the force of personality that is Donald Trump
- In the primaries, being ready for prime time matters; DeSantis is not. And the Republican base still loves Trump
Last year could not have ended better for DeSantis when he won his re-election in November by nearly 20 percentage points, while most other Republicans underperformed in the pivotal midterms.
DeSantis had gained popularity beyond his state by keeping Florida more or less open during the Covid-19 pandemic while most other states were shut down. For a moment, he even looked like he would overtake Trump in the popularity stakes when Fox News all but declared him the chosen one, resulting in him topping polls for a hypothetical match-up with Trump.
Since his re-election, however, DeSantis has endured a difficult few months that raise the question of whether he’s ready for prime time. He committed a faux pas by calling Russia’s war against Ukraine a “territorial dispute” while suggesting the US should cease support for Kyiv. The immense backlash, even from within the party, forced him to make a U-turn – which just made him look worse.
These developments are not unusual in American presidential races, however. DeSantis is merely experiencing what other candidates before him have endured: facing the national spotlight.
It’s one thing being a big fish in a small pond, but quite different once a candidate is in the national spotlight and suddenly has to present a vision for the republic, all while being pushed out of their comfort zone.
Rudy Giuliani was “America’s mayor” when he entered the Republican race in 2007, leading the field significantly, but he failed to make it to Super Tuesday after abominable results in the early primaries. Texas governor Rick Perry also led the field, in 2011, but folded impressively once he started appearing on national debate stages.
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DeSantis possesses none of these qualities. He is highly educated, probably knows the Constitution inside out and, unlike Trump, can name, comprehend and explain policies. But he is aloof. When he has to interact with voters, he seems wooden, even awkward. His debate stage appearances will not move the needle.
His decision to launch his campaign not in front of a cheering crowd but via Twitter Spaces illustrated this perfectly. It also showed another major shortcoming that will cost DeSantis dearly against Trump: he is not a dominant personality.
If there is one moment in a presidential campaign where it is essential to project power and dominance, it is when announcing the run. But DeSantis diminished himself by entering the Twitter bubble in the shadow of Elon Musk.
DeSantis never tires of presenting as a strongman, willing and able to take on the “elites” or “socialists”. But, at the most critical moment of his political career, he sought the protection of one of the world’s richest men.
His campaign credo, “Never Back Down”, seems downright comical considering DeSantis only shows dominance when he punches down, such as when he yells at schoolchildren for wearing masks, puts migrants on buses to Martha’s Vineyard or calls out Mickey Mouse.
But in the primaries, there is only one real question: who is mean and tough enough to take on Trump? The answer, thus far, is not DeSantis. Trump has called DeSantis a fake Trump, and launched other attacks, which have largely gone unanswered, with DeSantis neither willing nor able to attack Trump directly.
In Republican primaries, where the winner essentially takes all, being ready for prime time matters; DeSantis is not and Trump will feast on his persona and lack of dominance until the nomination is secured.
Thomas O. Falk is a UK-based independent journalist and political analyst
