A China-brokered peace deal on the Korean peninsula would be a victory for everyone
To achieve this, Beijing must stop being adversarial and work with Seoul to come up with a denuclearisation-for-modernisation deal Pyongyang can’t refuse
With a prosperous peninsula, free of nuclear weapons and US troops, Xi would secure his legacy as a top statesman and China’s peaceful rise as a world power
China can cement its rise as the pre-eminent power in Northeast Asia by brokering a long-awaited peace on the Korean peninsula. This is a project Beijing should undertake in close cooperation with Seoul and would mean ridding the peninsula of all nuclear weapons, promoting economic prosperity for both Koreas, and paving the way for the removal of all US troops.
To achieve this, three conditions have to be met. First, China must stop being adversarial and instead pursue a foreign policy focused on the region’s shared interests.
As former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev once noted, foreign policy is a continuation of domestic policy. This makes ideology inseparable from foreign policy – as seen in Chinese Lieutenant General Jing Jianfeng’s recent condemnation, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, of the Biden administration for attempting “to divide the world into ideologically driven camps and provoke confrontation”.
Peace, development, equity, justice, democracy and freedom are aspirations outlined by President Xi Jinping in his Global Civilisation Initiative. These, which could be the principal tenets of China’s foreign policy, are particularly relevant when it comes to the Korean peninsula. If Xi can seize the opportunity to stabilise the peninsula on these terms, it would define his statesmanship.
Second, China must establish a strategic partnership with South Korea and jointly introduce a denuclearisation policy for the North. This must be a proposal that all the stakeholders will endorse, including the United States. Beijing, with the support of Seoul, Washington and others, can then offer a package deal that Pyongyang can’t refuse.
This deal must include the lifting of sanctions, security guarantees, a peace treaty with South Korea and sufficient funds for North Korea’s economic modernisation. In return, Kim Jong-un’s regime could implement market-oriented reforms and replace its hostile ideology with an amicable one. North Korea must be persuaded to contribute to global peace and development as a non-nuclear-weapons state.
Third, North Korea must stop firing ballistic missiles and other such provocations, which give the Biden’s administration a pretext to keep US troops nearby. Once a lasting peace, stability and joint economic prosperity is established on the peninsula, the US would no longer be able to justify maintaining its troops in South Korea.
Meanwhile, the situation in and around the Korean peninsula is evolving as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Firstly, the conflict has catalysed geopolitical polarisation by dividing the world mainly into two camps. China’s refusal to condemn Russia and its “no limits” friendship with Moscow mean they are seen as being on the same side, while North Korea is keen to encourage a trilateral alliance with its two neighbours.
In response, the US has consolidated its partnerships across the Asia-Pacific, including through a trilateral alliance with Japan and South Korea, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Subsequently, many Asian countries now depend heavily on the US for their security.
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US, Japan and Philippines hold first joint coastguard exercise in the South China Sea
US, Japan and Philippines hold first joint coastguard exercise in the South China Sea
This polarisation has given impetus to the US policy of China containment, widely seen as intended to halt China’s rise.
Secondly, both China and the US have escalated their use of economic coercion to achieve policy objectives. In the case of South Korea, China’s strategy has backfired. In 2017, Beijing suspended group tours to South Korea in response to Seoul’s decision to deploy the US-controlled THAAD, a network of radars and interceptors designed to knock out incoming ballistic missiles. The loss in tourism revenues for South Korea was estimated to add up to US$24 billion over just 2½ years.
South Korea is now pulling away from China and tilting towards the US and Japan. It holds regular military exercises with the US and hosts modern US strategic military assets. Last year, the US overtook China as the top market for South Korean exports for the first time since 2004. South Korea’s relations with Japan are also warming up rapidly after Seoul sought a detente in the face of common security challenges.
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Leaders of South Korea and Japan commit to stronger ties despite lingering historical disputes
Leaders of South Korea and Japan commit to stronger ties despite lingering historical disputes
Thirdly, an increasingly hawkish South Korea has prompted the North to declare itself a de jure nuclear-armed state and to increase its military provocations and missile tests, including of long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles.
This escalation has created acute regional tensions and forced countries to consider boosting their defence budgets. Talk of South Korea and Japan developing their own nuclear weapon programmes has amplified, to China’s unease.
In accordance with its Global Civilisation Initiative, Xi must reverse these trends.
China must uphold the “common values of humanity” and apply these in its foreign policy directives on the Korean peninsula. Only by achieving permanent peace, prosperity and joint economic development on the peninsula can China nullify the US military’s role as guarantor of security in the face of North Korean aggression, and keep North Korea as a buffer between China and US influence in the South.
The sheer feat of the denuclearisation of North Korea would not just end the US military presence on the peninsula; it would also pave the way for China’s peaceful ascent as a world power, redefining its relations with the US in the process. It would also induce a conducive environment for reunification with Taiwan.
For Xi, the success of the project would mean being hailed as the world’s pre-eminent statesman, for undertaking such a bold and audacious initiative. He would leave the finest possible legacy by leading and implementing a mutually beneficial package deal to denuclearise North Korea. Such a monumental achievement can only be a win-win result for South Korea, China, North Korea and the US.
Dr Chan Young Bang is the founder and president of KIMEP University, principal investigator at North Korea Strategic Research Centre, and a former economic adviser to the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev
