US-China diplomatic thaw raises hopes for military dialogue breakthrough

Top-level US-China military communication was halted after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year
But there are now signs of progress on both sides, with concrete action towards renewed defence relations

Nathaniel SchochetandEarl Carr

Published: 5:30am, 13 Nov 2023

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With the Indo-Pacific becoming a hotbed of contention, recent events have raised the possibility of a flashpoint developing into a military conflict between the US and China. The collisions between Chinese and Filipino vessels over the past weeks are of particular concern as America and the Philippines have a Mutual Defence Treaty that mandates the US to take military action to defend a Philippines under attack.

But this is not the only area with potential for escalation. There have also been many examples of US and Chinese military aircraft in close and dangerous proximity.

The probability of such instances leading to a conflict has been increased by the lack of communication between US and Chinese defence officials. Fortunately, things are starting to shift.

The breakdown in communication stems from former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year. In response, Beijing suspended its communication channels with US military commanders and defence policy coordinators. Attempts to re-establish top-level military communication have so far failed.

This breakdown was prominent at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore in June, a security summit that traditionally facilitated communication between high-level officials on Indo-Pacific security issues and enabled critical bilateral discussions.

Breaking with the norm, Li Shangfu, China’s defence minister at the time, and US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin did not hold talks – a result of the sanctions the US had imposed on Li. Beijing blames Washington for the communication issues.

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However, in the past few months, there has been a dramatic increase in high-level diplomatic dialogue between the two sides. This summer, US cabinet-level officials travelled to China in an attempt to revive relations. This uptick in high-level diplomacy bodes well for the potential to expand these conversations to the defence officials of both countries.

Change is also afoot after the months-long disappearance of Li from public life, followed last month by his sacking as China’s defence minister, with no explanation given. Fresh prospects for renewed defence relations have emerged amid speculation about his replacement. General Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) joint staff, is seen as the most likely candidate.

Liu is one of the few Chinese military leaders with combat experience, having served during the border conflicts with Vietnamese troops in the late 1970s and 1980s. In 2021, he was named commander of the PLA ground forces. His appointment as defence minister would afford greater importance to the position. It would also give the US a chance to speak to someone at the centre of China’s military operations and war planning.

The US and China have also begun concrete action towards renewed defence relations. The Beijing Xiangshan Forum, promoted as an alternative to the Shangri-la Dialogue, wrapped up recently, with US officials in attendance.

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The forum this year represented a rare opportunity for US-China military-to-military engagement. Xanthi Carras, the Defence Department’s principal director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, represented the US.

The Chinese defence minister usually hosts this meeting; however, due to the vacancy, General Zhang Youxia, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, gave the keynote speech. He said that military relations between the two powers must be conducted “under the principle of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation”.

Carras spoke to Chinese defence ministry spokesman, Senior Colonel Wu Qian. Wu said the forum was “a good platform for contact and communication” and urged the US to “create favourable conditions” for military communication.

02:17

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to the US also points to a potential thaw in bilateral tensions and leaves open the possibility of a resumption in top-level military dialogue. While in Washington, Wang also met strategic members of the US community with the Aspen Strategy Group hosting a discussion of various issues – including China-US military exchanges.

Importantly, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden are due to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in the coming week, with the aim of discussing ways to improve cooperation, including military-to-military ties.

But, although recent events indicate a potential increase in high-level military communication, caution is still required. At the Xiangshan Forum, General Zhang and Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu affirmed the close relationship between their countries. Zhang also said the PLA would “show no mercy” against any moves towards Taiwanese independence.

Amid Asia’s arms race, US and Chinese militaries must restart dialogue

Any resumption of high-level military dialogue between China and the US would not be guaranteed to happen swiftly. In the meantime, the two countries should pursue “Track 1.5” diplomacy – essentially backchannel diplomacy. The idea is that the talks would feature a mix of government officials – who participate in an unofficial capacity – and non-governmental experts, all sitting around the same table.

Track 1.5 diplomacy allows discussions to take place without the pressure of keeping up appearances, which high-level engagements necessitate. The Aspen Strategy Group’s recent meeting with Wang, and Henry Kissinger’s meeting with former defence minister Li this summer, exemplifies this type of diplomacy.

Such conversations can enhance communication between the US and Chinese sides and make future discussions among officials more appealing. Still, this approach should not replace high-level military engagement – instead, it should serve as a supplementary measure to bolster the process of resuming top-level communication between the defence chiefs of both countries.

Nathaniel Schochet is an analyst at CJPA Global Advisors

Earl Carr is founder and chief executive officer at CJPA Global Advisors