World needs China to take up diplomatic gauntlet in Middle East

As it seeks to project itself as a major global power in contrast to the US, China would be well advised to review its tangible contribution to the global good
Beijing has a rare opportunity to explore options for lowering the temperature in the region, by first seeking to end the spiral of violence and enable tentative negotiations

C. Uday Bhaskar

Published: 5:30am, 9 Feb 2024

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The UN Security Council emergency meeting, held on Monday at Russia’s request to deliberate the US military strikes against targets in Iraq and Syria – and the potential implications for peace and security in a region still reeling from the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel and the disproportionate reprisals – ended in an inconclusive but predictable manner.

The five permanent members stuck to their respective national positions – as is often the case when there is a sharp divergence between the United States and Russia – and there appears to be little light at the end of a dark, blood-spattered tunnel. An escalation stemming from miscalculation could have catastrophic consequences given the number of interlocutors in the turbulence that has engulfed the long-troubled Middle East.

The US justified the strikes as acting in self-defence after the killing of three of its military personnel at a US base in northeastern Jordan in a drone attack on January 28. It conducted 85 strikes on February 2 in Iraq and Syria against reported Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Forces and affiliated groups. Meanwhile, Russia and China both denounced the US response.

Russia’s representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, said the US actions had increased the level of instability in an already “burning” region. In a more temperate turn of phrase, Zhang Jun, China’s ambassador to the UN, noted that US military action was creating new turmoil in the Middle East and called on all countries concerned to stop acting out of self-interest, adding: “We are standing at a critical crossroads and should not forget that we are all in the same boat.”

This is a pertinent observation, and a similar sentiment has been voiced in different ways, the most relevant being in relation to the Cold War decades, when former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev remarked that “security is indivisible”. It is worth remembering, too, that Chinese President Xi Jinping dwelt on this concept during his address at the 2022 Boao Forum, just three days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24 that year.

Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia attends a UN Security Council session at UN headquarters in New York on Monday. Earlier, the US military had launched retaliatory air strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria after a drone attack killed three US troops at a base in Jordan. Photo: Kyodo

Scholars Zha Daojiong and Dong Ting wrote in an Asian Perspective journal article last year that Xi’s speech “used the expression ‘anquan buke fenge’ put forward as a principle (‘yuanze’). The core elements therein are ‘anquan’ (security) and ‘buke fenge’ (not to be divided or separated in conceptualisation). When used to discuss topics pertaining to national security and/or international affairs, ‘buke fenge’ can be translated into English as ‘inalienable’, ‘inseparable’ or ‘indivisible’.”

China surprised the world with its diplomatic dexterity last year by helping broker a deal between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia. While the structural fault lines between Tehran and Riyadh in the religious, ethnic and geopolitical spheres will pose complex challenges, the resumption of normal diplomatic engagement between the regional heavyweights augurs well.

Beijing must now seek to burnish its nascent credibility as an enabling power in conflict negotiations and contributing to the global good. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council that pitches itself as being in the same league as the US, China should pick up the political-diplomatic gauntlet to stabilise things in West Asia.

The US, which is directly involved in the affairs of the region and has been an overarching security provider to most Arab nations, is now seen to be more aligned with Israel, and the tensions with Russia over Ukraine seem intractable. This is playing out in the Middle East, where the support of proxies is an opaque minefield.

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The situation is fraught with danger. CIA director Bill Burns cautioned in a recent essay that: “I have spent much of the last four decades working in and on the Middle East, and I have rarely seen it more tangled or explosive.”

Given the breakdown in US-Russia relations over Ukraine, the UN Security Council has been paralysed since that war began. The stasis in meaningful conflict negotiations related to a “tangled” Middle East illustrates this dangerous deadlock.

Beijing has a rare opportunity to explore options for lowering the temperature, in the first instance to ensure the spiral of violence – whether from the Houthis, other non-state entities and their proxy supporters, or reprisal attacks by the US and its allies – is halted to enable tentative negotiations.

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Aside from the Iran-Saudi rapprochement, which is still a work in progress, Beijing has not made a significant contribution in conflict mitigation or management. Its image is that of a steely transactional power with a singular pursuit of Chinese interests. As it seeks to project itself as a major global power, in contrast to the hegemonic US, China would be well advised to review its tangible contribution to the global good.

The Indian experience of the early Cold War decades, when there was a near breakdown between the US and former Soviet Union, could be instructive. Despite its modest economic and military profile, New Delhi with Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru at the helm punched well above its weight and made a significant contribution in the Korean war armistice, the acceptance of the partial nuclear test ban treaty and in enabling Austria to remain neutral and safe from the Soviet embrace.

It would be disappointing if China chose to punch well below its economic weight and technological clout and failed to realise its professed commitment to “indivisible security”. This crisis is an opportune moment for Beijing to douse the fires.

Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar is director of the Society for Policy Studies (SPS), an independent think tank based in New Delhi