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  • September 22, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The HK$1 trillion reason to keep Hong Kong's US dollar peg

    Posted Oct 15th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Logic of switching to a yuan anchor doesn't stand up when that currency isn't freely convertible and its offshore liquidity is shallow The HK$1 trillion reason ... their assets are denominated in US dollars. The sums are enormous. At the end of June, Hong Kong investors had foreign portfolio investments worth HK$7.5 trillion, or 360 per cent of the city's ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1331710/hk1-trillion-reason-keep-hong-kongs-us-dollar-peg
  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    We don't need a Future Fund. The future is already upon us

    Posted Mar 05th 2014, 01:34am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland HK government should make better use of its existing resources and assets to meet the spending needs arising from an ageing population We don't need a Future Fund. ... infrastructure spending to soar from a record HK$78 billion in the coming financial year to a gobsmacking HK$515 billion in 2041- before factoring in general inflation. Their proposal would lock ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1440476/we-dont-need-future-fund-future-already-upon-us
  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fiscal report based on lunatic projection of capital spending

    Posted Mar 04th 2014, 05:09am by Tom Holland

    ... at today's prices, public spending on healthcare and welfare for the elderly will more than double, from HK$69 billion this year to HK$143 billion in 2041. Meanwhile, as Hong Kong's workforce ... which assumes no improvements in services, the government will have burned through its accumulated reserves by 2040, and will be reliant on borrowing to fill the HK$271 billion hole in its ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1439605/fiscal-report-based-lunatic-projection-capital-spending
  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Who's more damaging, Hong Kong officials or Occupy Central?

    Posted Feb 25th 2014, 12:32am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Forget scare stories about looming disruption and economic costs from protests, these guys are amateurs compared with government bunglers Who's more damaging, HK officials ... in 2012- the latest year for which figures are available- outside investors pumped HK$544 billion into the city. But that money, plus another HK$100 billion, immediately flowed out again as outward ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1434352/whos-more-damaging-hong-kong-officials-or-occupy-central
  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    It's not heresy to expect grand projects to pay for themselves

    Posted Feb 28th 2014, 01:01am by Tom Holland

    ... sits atop an enormous pile of surplus reserves roughly HK$1.6 trillion high. Let's assume public spending on health and welfare doubles in real terms over the next 30 years along with Hong Kong's population of over-60s. If we also assume a very modest 3.3 per cent real investment return in line with the Exchange Fund's performance over the last 20 years, then that HK ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1436598/its-not-heresy-expect-grand-projects-pay-themselves
  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Hong Kong's wealth fund is doing a lousy job investing our money

    Posted Jan 24th 2014, 02:13am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Last year's negative real return for the Exchange Fund follows a pattern, so perhaps it’s time to call on outsiders to manage a portion of the assets HK's wealth fund is doing a lousy job investing our money You may not know about it, but Hong Kong has a sovereign wealth fund. It's called the Exchange Fund. It manages assets of HK$3 trillion, and its ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1412068/hong-kongs-wealth-fund-doing-lousy-job-investing-our-money
  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Tsang's vision of Hong Kong's future is severely out of focus

    Posted Feb 27th 2014, 01:23am by Tom Holland

    ... only be used for infrastructure development. In the current fiscal year capital revenues- consisting overwhelmingly of land premium payments- are expected to reach HK$86 billion, or 20 per cent of total government revenue. That money has to be spent, so next year Tsang has budgeted infrastructure spending of a massive HK$78 billion. That makes infrastructure the largest single item ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1435878/tsangs-vision-hong-kongs-future-severely-out-focus
  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The yuan hasn't overtaken the HK$ quite yet, Mr Chan

    Posted Jun 19th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... overtaken the HK$ quite yet, Mr Chan According to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority the yuan has now overtaken the Hong Kong dollar in Hong Kong itself. Monday's edition of the Post quoted ... the value of Hong Kong dollar payments for the first time. The average daily value of yuan payments hit 390 billion yuan, he said, while local currency payments were worth HK$487 billion, equivalent ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1263884/yuan-hasnt-overtaken-hk-quite-yet-mr-chan
  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Spending on old folks isn't the problem- it's the solution

    Posted Jan 14th 2014, 01:37am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Our finance chief may fret, but let's use HK's massive surplus to set up a Health and Welfare Fund, and then we can retire off talk of tax rises Spending on old folks ... on something like HK$1.5 trillion in excess reserves. Of course, prudence dictates that the government should set some money aside for a rainy day. But we don't need HK$1.5 trillion. During ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1404895/spending-old-folks-isnt-problem-its-solution
  10. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    The yuan is falling, but only because Beijing wants it to

    Posted Mar 03rd 2014, 02:59am by Tom Holland

    ... January alone, companies and households in the onshore market sold enough foreign currency to buy an astonishing 460 billion yuan (HK$582 billion). To put the size of that flow into perspective, ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1438811/yuan-falling-only-because-beijing-wants-it

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