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  • October 24, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Forecast of 30 per cent slump in home prices is about right

    Posted Oct 29th 2013, 02:31am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Barclays may have jumped the gun earlier, but its researchers point to burden of mortgage servicing when rates rise amid abundant supply Forecast of 30 per cent slump in home prices is about right Two years ago, at the beginning of November 2011, Barclays Bank published a research report forecasting that Hong Kong home prices would fall 30 per cent over the following ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Shareholders must have right to hold managers to account

    Posted Oct 28th 2013, 04:32am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Ordinary investors face higher – and often hidden – risks and are all too likely to lose out under structures that strip them of their rights Shareholders must have right ... about corporate governance and minority shareholder rights. I didn't learn anything new about how to read a balance sheet, but I did get a valuable reminder that accountants, like lawyers, ...

  3. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    To continue growing, China will have to work a lot smarter

    Posted Feb 07th 2014, 05:17am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Productivity is the growth driver that will determine whether the optimists or pessimists are right when it comes to China's outlook To continue growing, China will have ... labour, or human capital. You can add physical capital. Or you can get smarter about how you work. Measuring the first two inputs is simple. Measuring the third driver of growth is very difficult. ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    After nine years, it's time to leave the stage

    Posted Mar 06th 2014, 12:25am by Tom Holland

    ... rightly rejected such an unnecessary and regressive tax proposal. And today, with the government sitting on accumulated surpluses worth nearly four years of government spending, Hong Kong's ...

  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    It's not heresy to expect grand projects to pay for themselves

    Posted Feb 28th 2014, 01:01am by Tom Holland

    ... budget speech, are an illusion conjured up by the government itself. As one reader noted: "Things aren't quite as simple as you make out." He's right, of course. Things very ...

  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Being right too early is as bad as being wrong

    Posted Apr 17th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Infrastructure investment should now lift growth, which will in turn renew demand for commodities – just a little later than predicted Being right too early is as bad as being ... in the coming quarters." They expect an increase in capital-intensive infrastructure investment in China to lift growth over the coming months. If they are right, the fresh round of investment ...

  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    A 15-hour work week sounds great, but we'd still want more

    Posted Sep 23rd 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... consultancy, human resources and similarly unproductive fields that kept millions busy achieving nothing at all. "It's as if someone were out there making up pointless jobs just for the sake ... is of limited use in gauging economic development. It's great at measuring output, but tells you nothing about the cost of that output in environmental or human welfare terms. But although ...

  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The essential financial reform Beijing cannot afford to ignore

    Posted Jan 28th 2014, 01:27am by Tom Holland

    ... millions of jobs, the pace of domestic liberalisation slowed right down. It didn't stop entirely. Hu and his premier Wen Jiabao were credited with one major reform. Starting in 2003, right ... use rights, which they could then use as collateral against bank loans to fund infrastructure development. So local government-backed investment companies, often called local government ...

  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    China may have problems, but this scare story isn't one of them

    Posted Feb 04th 2014, 05:57am by Tom Holland

    ... be no danger of a global financial meltdown. It is certainly true that China's foreign liabilities have grown rapidly in recent years; a quadrupling since 2009 is about right. But, if anything, ...

  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Chinese bank valuations imply a bad loan ratio of 13 per cent

    Posted Jan 22nd 2014, 12:44am by Tom Holland

    ... opportunity. There is, however, another interpretation. Imagine that the market has got the pricing of Chinese bank shares about right. That would imply the value at which they are carrying assets ... This of course is nothing but a rough illustration. But it does illustrate just how apprehensive investors feel right now about buying into China's banking sector. The gyrations ...




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