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  • September 3, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    After nine years, it's time to leave the stage

    Posted Mar 06th 2014, 12:25am by Tom Holland

    ... Chee-hwa was still the chief executive of Hong Kong's government, and the city was struggling to emerge from a six-year-long deflationary slump. Property prices were down by half from ... average. Within weeks the hapless Tung had stepped down, and today, two chiefs later, those hard times seem a distant memory. In the years since, Hong Kong's economy has grown by more than 40 ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1441327/after-nine-years-its-time-leave-stage
  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    We don't need a Future Fund. The future is already upon us

    Posted Mar 05th 2014, 01:34am by Tom Holland

    ... The future is already upon us The government's warnings that Hong Kong is heading for a fiscal crisis of Greek proportions are ludicrous. As Monitor pointed out yesterday, new projections ... sheet. They also pay little attention to the government's physical assets, which include Hong Kong's water system, airport, rail network and two theme parks, among many others. All ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1440476/we-dont-need-future-fund-future-already-upon-us
  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fiscal report based on lunatic projection of capital spending

    Posted Mar 04th 2014, 05:09am by Tom Holland

    ... In a nutshell the working group argued that as Hong Kong's population ages, over the next three decades the number of over-65s living in the city will grow by 1.5 million. As a result, measured at today's prices, public spending on healthcare and welfare for the elderly will more than double, from HK$69 billion this year to HK$143 billion in 2041. Meanwhile, as Hong Kong's workforce ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1439605/fiscal-report-based-lunatic-projection-capital-spending
  4. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    The yuan is falling, but only because Beijing wants it to

    Posted Mar 03rd 2014, 02:59am by Tom Holland

    ... at the end of last year the entire stock of yuan-denominated deposits in Hong Kong's offshore market only came to 860 billion yuan. Handling such big flows causes problems for the PBOC. It can ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1438811/yuan-falling-only-because-beijing-wants-it
  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    It's not heresy to expect grand projects to pay for themselves

    Posted Feb 28th 2014, 01:01am by Tom Holland

    ... projects to pay for themselves Thank you to the readers who wrote in to comment on yesterday's Monitor, which suggested that Hong Kong's fiscal problems, outlined in Wednesday's ... to portray. With the backing of the government, future projects would be able to borrow cheaply Take Hong Kong's budget. In Wednesday's speech financial secretary John Tsang warned ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1436598/its-not-heresy-expect-grand-projects-pay-themselves
  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Tsang's vision of Hong Kong's future is severely out of focus

    Posted Feb 27th 2014, 01:23am by Tom Holland

    ... Kong's future is severely out of focus In his budget speech yesterday, John Tsang Chun-wah did his best to scare us. If Hong Kong continues on its current trajectory, steadily improving ... and it soon becomes clear that Tsang's gloomy forecast of a looming structural deficit is the product of a deep structural flaw in his own approach to Hong Kong's public finances. When Hong ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1435878/tsangs-vision-hong-kongs-future-severely-out-focus
  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Who's more damaging, Hong Kong officials or Occupy Central?

    Posted Feb 25th 2014, 12:32am by Tom Holland

    ... or Occupy Central? Among the grievances aired at Hong Kong's weekend protest against media censorship were complaints that editors have been leaning on local journalists to stress the supposed ... of Occupy have been warning for months now that the movement will cause economic havoc in Hong Kong. However, on examination their criticisms of Occupy are vacuous. If people are concerned about ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1434352/whos-more-damaging-hong-kong-officials-or-occupy-central
  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    George Osborne is wrong about China and the yuan

    Posted Feb 21st 2014, 12:24am by Tom Holland

    ... they render the results meaningless). And yesterday Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, was in Hong Kong talking up London's prospects as a centre for yuan-denominated ... out Chinese domestic trade routed though Hong Kong the amounts are a lot smaller than the headline figures suggest). But those gains have been propelled almost entirely by simple exchange rate ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1432166/george-osborne-wrong-about-china-and-yuan
  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fears over a 'tail risk' hard landing in China are growing

    Posted Feb 20th 2014, 01:10am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Any slump in the mainland economy will inevitably cause casualties including Hong Kong because of the banking sector’s exposure Fears over a 'tail risk' hard landing ... for a crisis or two in emerging markets," he warned. Also this week, economist Wang Tao and her colleagues at Swiss bank UBS pointed out that Hong Kong is particularly vulnerable to a Chinese ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1431315/fears-over-tail-risk-hard-landing-china-are-growing
  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    A nice idea Mr Yam, but it will be a long time before it can fly

    Posted Feb 19th 2014, 01:27am by Tom Holland

    ... but it will be a long time before it can fly Former Hong Kong Monetary Authority boss Joseph Yam Chi-kwong may have retired from his position as the world's most generously paid central banker, but he is still eager to dispense his advice to anyone who will listen. In 2012 he called on Hong Kong to scrap its currency peg to the US dollar- the very same peg that Yam spent much of his career ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1430637/nice-idea-mr-yam-it-will-be-long-time-it-can-fly

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