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  • November 29, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Cyclically bullish on China's market but a structural bear

    Posted Jan 11th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... system's reserves deposited at the central bank). Shown by the black line in the first chart, this measures China's credit multiplier effect. And as the chart shows, when its rate of change ... the latest reading for that particular measure was back in September, which obviously is not as up to date as investors would like. So I am grateful to Ajay Kapur, Asian strategist at Deutsche Bank ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Selling credit risk to bank depositors is a lousy idea

    Posted Dec 07th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... deposits, or almost a quarter of China's likely gross domestic product for this year. Investors are happy to buy because they believe the products are backed by the banks that sell them. What ... Tom Holland tom.holland@scmp.com Mainland banks pushing dangerous 'wealth management products' are gambling not only with savers' money but with economic stability Selling ...

  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Don't hold your breath for big bang China financial reform

    Posted Nov 13th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... the reliance on bank loans for corporate and local government financing, and towards greater dependence on the bond market. Together these two reforms would markedly improve the efficiency ... banks have reduced their actual lending rates by less. As a result, in September the weighted average interest rate for general loans was 7.18 per cent, more than a full percentage point above ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Wrong about the stock market, right about government idiocy

    Posted Dec 18th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... that the forecasts made by investment banks for stock market performance looked "absurdly over-optimistic". I singled out Credit Suisse for its Panglossian attitude to markets, although I could ... would run out of puff this year. The CRB commodity price index has since fallen by 3.4 per cent. And in January, I said that one of the most rewarding asset classes of 2011- yuan deposits- would ...


    Claims for China's household wealth just don't add up

    Posted Aug 20th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... University of Finance and Economics and the People's Bank of China published a survey claiming that the average urban family in China owns assets worth 2.47 million yuan (HK$3 million), ... But alas, the numbers don't add up. Let's assume Chinese households hold their financial assets in the form of shares, savings deposits and property. If we assume households hold 30 per ...



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