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  • September 19, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    New 'two-child' rules won't trigger China baby boom

    Posted Dec 11th 2013, 04:55am by Tom Holland

    ... a single child. The likely impact … on birth rates, and household spending, remains uncertain The change is not as revolutionary as it first sounds. For years now, rural families have been allowed ... the excitement, however, the likely impact of the policy relaxation on birth rates, and on household spending, remains uncertain. Clint Laurent, the founder of specialist research firm Global ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Beijing's financial reforms will push up interest rates

    Posted Jan 16th 2014, 11:41pm by Tom Holland

    ... reforms will push up interest rates In recent months Beijing has slowly been relaxing its long-standing controls over the mainland's interest rates. In July last year, the central bank scrapped its minimum lending rates, in theory allowing banks complete freedom to set interest rates on loans to commercial customers. Then last month the People's Bank of China allowed ...

  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    A healthy China would set interest rates at 10 per cent

    Posted Jan 05th 2014, 11:49pm by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Central bank action after spike in repurchase rate highlights that interest rates should be set at level close to nominal pace of output growth A healthy China would set interest rates at 10 per cent A nasty liquidity squeeze gripped the mainland's financial markets in the third week of December. As the country's banks scrambled for cash, the seven-day ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Scrapping the one-child policy won't solve China's problems

    Posted Aug 08th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... the effect will be temporary. Not even scrapping birth control policies altogether would be able to reverse the long-term decline in China's birth rate or in the size of its working-age ... rate from 13 million this year to almost 16 million in 2018. But that increase won't do anything to halt the long-term decline in births, because the age profile of China's current ...

  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Ratings are not credit- and a new agency won't change that

    Posted Oct 11th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Investors from the developing world should base their risk assessment on their own research and the interest rates in the open market Ratings are not credit- and a new agency won't change that You can be pretty sure someone is clueless about finance if they start blaming the 2008 crisis on the Big Three credit rating agencies. Sure, Standard & Poor's, ...

  6. Business - Banking & Finance - MONITOR

    Beijing's latest rate reform makes no difference at all

    Posted Jul 22nd 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Fiddling with lending rates will have little impact as long as credit continues to be allocated according to government-determined quotas Beijing's latest rate reform makes no difference at all On Friday evening, the People's Bank of China announced it would scrap minimum lending rates for the banking sector. The reaction was predictably enthusiastic. ...

  7. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    The yuan is falling, but only because Beijing wants it to

    Posted Mar 03rd 2014, 02:59am by Tom Holland

    ... a daily reference rate, and if necessary, it intervenes heavily in the onshore market to make sure the yuan strays no further than 1 per cent either side of that rate. And while the yuan has ... interest rates may be modest. But returns in the onshore market, especially in the mainland's shadow financial system, are considerably higher than on major currencies like the yen ...

  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    George Osborne is wrong about China and the yuan

    Posted Feb 21st 2014, 12:24am by Tom Holland

    ... rates will reduce the incentives for global firms to deal in and hold the yuan They also benefit from an old convention that dictates rival politicians and the media should refrain from ... out Chinese domestic trade routed though Hong Kong the amounts are a lot smaller than the headline figures suggest). But those gains have been propelled almost entirely by simple exchange rate ...

  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Hong Kong's housing supply to soar just as mortgage rates double

    Posted Jul 08th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... as mortgage rates double It is doubtful the thousands of estate agents who took to Hong Kong's streets yesterday in protest against the government's property market policies won much ... the rate at which old housing is demolished, the net increase in Hong Kong's housing stock over the next 10 years will be enough to house an additional 400,000 families. This makes you wonder ...

  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Hong Kong government immigration forecasts wildly exaggerated

    Posted Sep 11th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... by 376,500 over the next 10 years. If we assume that Hong Kong continues to demolish old flats at the rate of about 3,000 a year, and that there are an additional 60,000 households living ... Hongkongers to get busy making babies. According to the official forecast, natural population growth as births exceed deaths will only result in an increase of 106,000. The rest of the population ...




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