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  • November 28, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Nothing new in Beijing's latest 'clampdown' on shadow loans

    Posted Jan 08th 2014, 03:33am by Tom Holland

    ... liabilities made up 7 trillion yuan of local governments' 18 trillion yuan debt mountain, up 75 per cent from 2010. In many cases, banks raise the funding for these loans by selling so-called ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1400132/nothing-new-beijings-latest-clampdown-shadow-loans
  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Crystal ball was cloudy last year, but it had its moments

    Posted Jan 03rd 2014, 01:48am by Tom Holland

    ... predictions were closer to the mark. The column warned early in the year that the bull case for gold didn't stand up. The metal ended 2013 down a painful 27 per cent. In June, Monitor warned ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1396145/crystal-ball-was-cloudy-last-year-it-had-its-moments
  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Reform pledges likely to hurt both stock prices and yuan

    Posted Nov 27th 2013, 03:32am by Tom Holland

    ... are likely to face disappointment. As in any reform process, Beijing's liberalisation plans will create losers as well as winners. In this case the losers will come disproportionately from among ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1366540/reform-pledges-likely-hurt-both-stock-prices-and-yuan
  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Arguments for keeping Hong Kong's stamp duty fail close scrutiny

    Posted Nov 01st 2013, 03:09am by Tom Holland

    ... never have been there in the first place. As for the charge that high-frequency trading exaggerates volatility, the evidence of recent studies is mixed. In any case, Hong Kong operates circuit ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1344773/arguments-keeping-hong-kongs-stamp-duty-fail-close-scrutiny
  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Forecast of 30 per cent slump in home prices is about right

    Posted Oct 29th 2013, 02:31am by Tom Holland

    ... that "supply is short and mortgage rates are low by historical standards- both of which should help support prices", this time Barclays makes an arresting case. Although the US Federal Reserve ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1342170/forecast-30-cent-slump-home-prices-about-right
  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Ratings are not credit- and a new agency won't change that

    Posted Oct 11th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... borrowing, and bank bosses, who threw prudence out of the window and leveraged up in pursuit of profit. In any case, anyone who paid any attention knew- or should have known- that the agencies' ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1328886/ratings-are-not-credit-and-new-agency-wont-change
  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The 4.3tr yuan cost of financial openness

    Posted Oct 01st 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... and 9.9 per cent of China's GDP into the onshore debt and equity markets. Clearly the influx of so much money would risk a severe case of domestic financial indigestion. But, warn the IMF ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1321681/43tr-yuan-cost-financial-openness
  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Allowing free capital flows is fast going out of fashion

    Posted Sep 27th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... a help," he admits. "There is a case for trying to moderate their influence." Fischer isn't the only one to revise his views. In 2010, the Asian Development Bank said members should ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1318515/allowing-free-capital-flows-fast-going-out-fashion
  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Five years later, what has the mini-bond scandal taught us?

    Posted Sep 18th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... it is questionable how much investors, bankers and regulators have really learned from the whole fiasco. With deposit rates low, banks and their customers are as willing as before to run extra risks In case ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1311841/five-years-later-what-has-mini-bond-scandal-taught-us
  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Beijing is only treating the symptoms, not their cause

    Posted Apr 01st 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... the property market and the shadow banking system could end up doing more harm than good. The reason is the same in each case. The authorities' new measures are an attempt to deal ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1204293/beijing-only-treating-symptoms-not-their-cause

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