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  • September 21, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Stimulus or not, it's the quality of new investment that matters

    Posted Sep 11th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... of new investment that matters Last week Beijing approved 60 major new infrastructure projects together worth 1 trillion yuan (HK$1.22 trillion), or around 2 per cent of China's gross ... systems and other similar stuff- is low relative to the size of its population. China badly needs more infrastructure, they argue, in order to improve productivity and boost incomes. As a result, ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    China's excess of industrial capacity nears danger level

    Posted Sep 24th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... of industrial capacity nears danger level When China announced a massive stimulus programme in late 2008, the intention was to boost economic growth in the short term by investing in the infrastructure needed to underpin long-term development. What actually happened turned out to be rather different. Although a great deal of money did indeed pour into infrastructure investment, far more ended ...

  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Even an export rebound won't do much to lift China growth

    Posted Feb 13th 2014, 01:07am by Tom Holland

    ... to lift China growth The mainland's January trade figures confounded analysts everywhere. Released yesterday, last month's exports were not only much stronger than anyone expected, ... with January 2013. Most forecasters had expected them to be flat. [The developed markets] are not going to grow as quickly as in the years running up to 2007 What's more, it was difficult to blame ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Conspiracy theories abound about China's gold purchases

    Posted Feb 11th 2014, 01:51am by Tom Holland

    ... to make further price gains. But while the enthusiasm of Western investors for gold has dulled, over the last two and a half years China's demand for the stuff has exploded. Last year China ... China's gold purchases China's huge appetite for gold has inspired dozens of conspiracy theories. They are all nonsense. Yes, it is true that China has been buying an awful lot of gold ...

  5. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    To continue growing, China will have to work a lot smarter

    Posted Feb 07th 2014, 05:17am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Productivity is the growth driver that will determine whether the optimists or pessimists are right when it comes to China's outlook To continue growing, China will have ... They expect the annual growth rate to slump well below 5 per cent over the coming years. Both camps recognise that China's economy needs to reform and rebalance, becoming a lot less dependent ...

  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Tsang's vision of Hong Kong's future is severely out of focus

    Posted Feb 27th 2014, 01:23am by Tom Holland

    ... only be used for infrastructure development. In the current fiscal year capital revenues- consisting overwhelmingly of land premium payments- are expected to reach HK$86 billion, or 20 per cent ... They are being built solely because officials have set aside money to spend on infrastructure So there you have it. An ageing population means public spending must rise, so taxes will have to go up ...

  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    All is not what it seems when it comes to China's trade figures

    Posted Jan 09th 2014, 11:51pm by Tom Holland

    ... that its economy is only about half the size of America's. According to customs data, over the 12 months to November, China's gross trade with the rest of the world- exports plus imports- ... of payments data combining the trade in both goods and services, a different picture emerges. According to this measure, in the first half of last year, China's trade with the rest of the world ...

  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    After nine years, it's time to leave the stage

    Posted Mar 06th 2014, 12:25am by Tom Holland

    ... to leave the stage Gentle readers, this will be my last daily column for the South China Morning Post. After nine years, 2,000 articles, and 1.5 million words- more even than Marcel Proust's ... it is perhaps less surprising how things have changed than how much they have remained the same. An awful lot has changed, of course. When I joined the South China Morning Post in February 2005, Tung ...

  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Even Hong Kong's best efforts may not help to clear our air

    Posted Feb 12th 2014, 12:46am by Tom Holland

    ... not be immediately detectable in the form of better pollution-free visibility in Hong Kong's atmosphere. As China continues to develop, its demand for power will only increase Although much of the nasty ... not help to clear our air Christine Loh Kung-wai, Hong Kong's campaigning Under Secretary for the Environment, has promised us that she will deliver "drastic improvements" ...

  10. Business - Banking & Finance - MONITOR

    The encouraging signs behind China's record funding figures

    Posted Feb 17th 2014, 04:47am by Tom Holland

    ... behind China's record funding figures The trouble with economic statistics is that it is all too easy to see whatever you want to in the data. Take the monetary figures released by Beijing ... On the other hand, if you are a glass-half-full type, you will be encouraged by Saturday's figures. The shadow market, you will note, made up a smaller proportion of total financing than in recent ...




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