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  • October 1, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Why the HKMA should fret over consumer debt

    Posted May 07th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland The coming housing crisis in the city after the Fed raises US interest rates is going to plunge many Hongkongers into negative equity You're wrong Jake; the HKMA should fret over consumer debt Only last week my esteemed colleague Jake van der Kamp was complaining that there is altogether too much consensus among the Business Post's columnists. ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The indebted consumer's guide to growth in China

    Posted Apr 19th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Growth rate of increase in loans key to fuelling country's economic pace but the credit-driven model is clearly not sustainable The indebted consumer's guide ... consumers, so with whole economies. According to Tilton, a 900 billion yuan increase in the quarterly flow of China's total social financing typically boosts the following quarter's ...

  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Official manipulation adds 10 per cent to China's GDP

    Posted Aug 12th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... that housing costs- usually a major item in any country's consumer price index inflation basket- are both understated and underweighted by China's statistical agency. He points out that, ... barely contributes to the official inflation figures. Between 2000 and 2010, housing costs made up just 13 per cent of China's official consumer inflation basket. In 2011, the weighting ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Neither Singapore nor Hong Kong is an Iceland waiting to happen

    Posted Feb 14th 2014, 12:42am by Tom Holland

    ... The government has imposed a series of administrative restrictions aimed at cooling the property market, while the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has sounded the alarm about rising levels of consumer debt ... on the mainland, and that in case of a default local banks may find it impossible ever to recover their collateral. For all that, however, Hong Kong is not another Iceland. Consumer leverage is relatively ...

  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    A nice idea Mr Yam, but it will be a long time before it can fly

    Posted Feb 19th 2014, 01:27am by Tom Holland

    ... threatening both asset price and consumer inflation. So to keep a grip on prices, the central bank must mop up- or sterilise, in the jargon- the floods of yuan it releases into the domestic financial ...

  6. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Continued yuan appreciation is no longer such a sure thing

    Posted Feb 10th 2014, 04:31am by Tom Holland

    ... suppliers. Even so, the yuan's real appreciation has badly dented Chinese corporate profits. It is no accident that Foxconn, famous for assembling Apple's consumer electronics products ...

  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Conspiracy theories abound about China's gold purchases

    Posted Feb 11th 2014, 01:51am by Tom Holland

    ... of China's official reserves, given that China's imports through Hong Kong went overwhelmingly to satisfy consumer demand for jewellery and private investors' appetite for bullion. ...

  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Despite talk of reform, no sign of rebalancing in China's data

    Posted Jan 21st 2014, 01:05am by Tom Holland

    ... At the same time, retail sales grew 13.1 per cent in nominal terms. Adjusting for consumer inflation, that gives a real increase of a little over 10 per cent. Admittedly, a headline figure ... sales is an imperfect guide to consumer spending. They tend to be measured at the wholesale level and include at least some government procurement. Even so, yesterday's figures showing ...

  9. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Beijing's statistical sleight of hand

    Posted Dec 06th 2013, 05:09am by Tom Holland

    ... more light on what may be going on. In a new study they point out that as households get richer, so their consumption mix changes. Typically as incomes rise, consumers spend a smaller ... used to calculate the consumer price index may no longer reflect actual spending patterns. In turn that means the official inflation figures will no longer accurately track price changes ...

  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Impact of Beijing's anti-sleaze campaign wildly exaggerated

    Posted May 23rd 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... campaign wildly exaggerated Over the past couple of months, the media have been full of articles about how Beijing's latest anti-corruption campaign has dented consumer demand and even ... on Beijing's corruption clampdown, as officials tried to consume a little less conspicuously. But from slowing sales growth for handbags and luxury cars to slower economic growth is a big leap. Car ...




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