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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    After nine years, it's time to leave the stage

    Posted Mar 06th 2014, 12:25am by Tom Holland

    ... Kong's public finances. The city's fiscal position was unsustainable, they warned, arguing the only way to balance the books would be to impose a goods and services tax. Public opinion ... who have written in over the years to chastise, correct or encourage me. When this column has been at its best, it was all down to you. tom.holland@scmp.com ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1441327/after-nine-years-its-time-leave-stage
  2. Business - China Business - MONITOR

    It's tough, but China must let trust company products fail

    Posted Jan 27th 2014, 04:23am by Tom Holland

    ... neither borrowers nor lenders have much experience of correctly assessing and pricing credit risk. Many borrowers expect to be able to roll loans over indefinitely at rock bottom rates ... the products cannot service their debts. It's tough on the investors, of course, especially as it's likely many buyers were misled about the real level of risks involved in trust products ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1414377/its-tough-china-must-let-trust-company-products-fail
  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fiscal report based on lunatic projection of capital spending

    Posted Mar 04th 2014, 05:09am by Tom Holland

    ... which assumes no improvements in services, the government will have burned through its accumulated reserves by 2040, and will be reliant on borrowing to fill the HK$271 billion hole in its ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1439605/fiscal-report-based-lunatic-projection-capital-spending
  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Tsang's vision of Hong Kong's future is severely out of focus

    Posted Feb 27th 2014, 01:23am by Tom Holland

    ... education, welfare and health services, the financial secretary warned we will be plunged into "a structural deficit" in just seven years. Even if the government were to freeze real per ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1435878/tsangs-vision-hong-kongs-future-severely-out-focus
  5. Business - Money - MONITOR

    No need to panic over slide in stock markets

    Posted Feb 05th 2014, 05:37am by Tom Holland

    ... market crash. Compare that with Hong Kong's more modest valuation at the beginning of the year of just 10.4 times earnings. Seen in that light, a healthy correction in the US market looks ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/money/markets-investing/article/1420956/no-need-panic-over-slide-stock-markets
  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Forecast of 30 per cent slump in home prices is about right

    Posted Oct 29th 2013, 02:31am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Barclays may have jumped the gun earlier, but its researchers point to burden of mortgage servicing when rates rise amid abundant supply Forecast of 30 per cent slump in home ... Louie and Zita Qin at Barclays believe that consensus expectations for a correction of about 15 per cent understate the magnitude of the likely fall. They argue the 15 per cent figure is based ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1342170/forecast-30-cent-slump-home-prices-about-right
  7. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Immigration and reclamation won't raise living standards

    Posted Feb 18th 2014, 04:34am by Tom Holland

    ... of non-traded goods and services, like housing. As Monitor has pointed out before, if you look at real GDP per capita in local currency terms, you find that Hong Kong has averaged a 3.9 per cent growth ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1429854/immigration-and-reclamation-wont-raise-living-standards
  8. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    To continue growing, China will have to work a lot smarter

    Posted Feb 07th 2014, 05:17am by Tom Holland

    ... on credit-fuelled investment by local governments and state industries and a good deal more reliant on private service sector businesses. Where they diverge is on how smoothly reform will proceed, ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1422434/continue-growing-china-will-have-work-lot-smarter
  9. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    CY's policies will exacerbate city's coming down-cycle

    Posted Jan 16th 2014, 02:36am by Tom Holland

    ... potentially driving a deep correction in prices. The warning signs are already there. As the second chart shows, over the last six months long-term interest rates have climbed 1.5 percentage points. ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1406425/cys-policies-will-exacerbate-citys-coming-down-cycle
  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Simple-minded to expect Hong Kong home prices to fall? Not at all

    Posted Jan 07th 2014, 01:43am by Tom Holland

    ... tapering will be a gradual process. He correctly pointed out that US interest rates will remain effectively at zero well into 2015. Because of Hong Kong's currency peg to the US dollar, ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1399278/simple-minded-expect-hong-kong-home-prices-fall-not-all

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