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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Zhang Gaoli's Tianjin economic model promises disaster for China

    Posted Nov 06th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland If Zhang Gaoli becomes the next economics supremo, his record of debt-driven expansion is exactly what the country does not want in future Tianjin's economic model ... 60 per cent of Tianjin's gross domestic product. Most of that development has been funded by debt. As the second chart shows, during Zhang's reign over Tianjin, the ratio ...

  2. Business - China Business - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Worrying economic parallels between China and India

    Posted May 21st 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... that there is a one in three chance it could downgrade India's sovereign debt rating to junk status. China, too, is slowing from double-digit growth rates. But Beijing's trouble is not too little investment, but too much, raising the threat of over-capacity, declining returns on assets and a possible debt crisis. To switch the economy towards a more sustainable, more consumption-driven, growth ...

  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Beijing's energy ambitions threatened by lack of water

    Posted Oct 26th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... by lack of water Most analysts who argue that China's economic growth is heading for a structural downshift base their argument on fears about unsustainable levels of debt. With the economic returns on additional investments declining, they believe that attempting to maintain current investment and growth levels must inevitably force China into a crippling debt crisis. ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    After such a long wait, policy address is bound to disappoint

    Posted Jan 15th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... as if C.Y. will duck universal pensions on the grounds, according to the Sunday Morning Post, that Western countries offering state pensions have run up crippling debts. This is a bizarre reading ...


    Claims for China's household wealth just don't add up

    Posted Aug 20th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... China's 220 million urban households own a total 540 trillion yuan in assets. Household debt levels are low at just 9 trillion yuan. But even if debts are 10 times as high as official figures ...

  6. Business - Economy - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Five years after crisis began, we still can't see the elephant

    Posted Aug 17th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... of world trade, recession in the developed world, and finally the euro-zone's debt crisis, which continues to weigh on economic prospects around the world. In that time, blame for the crisis ... investors to leverage up in the hope of higher returns. The result was an explosion of debt and an orgy of risk-taking. To make things worse, people had little choice but to participate. Since ...

  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Cautionary fable from 1994 holds good for China today

    Posted Nov 27th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... that failure to make the necessary reforms will doom China "to a permanent halving of trend growth to 5 per cent" and a crippling build-up of debt interspersed with debilitating bouts ...

  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Think of China as a continent, not as one national economy

    Posted Nov 26th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... amid the Latin American debt crisis. Today, incomes in the big Latin American economies are still less than half those enjoyed by the developed world. Now pessimists warn that something similar ...

  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Over the US fiscal cliff and out of the financial woods

    Posted Dec 04th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... and is once again generating earnings growth from private credit growth. With their debt to income ratio back down to 2003 levels, US households have largely completed the deleveraging process, ...

  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Hu betrays muddled thinking about China's economic future

    Posted Nov 09th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... demand. But that's because rich world consumers tend to be net debtors. In China, households have little debt, but are sitting on 40 trillion yuan in savings deposits. As a result, increasing ...




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