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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fears over a 'tail risk' hard landing in China are growing

    Posted Feb 20th 2014, 01:10am by Tom Holland

    ... published yesterday, Tim Condon, the chief economist for Asia at Dutch banking giant ING, argued that just as China's rapid growth in the 2000s lifted economies across the world, so a Chinese ... Tom Holland Any slump in the mainland economy will inevitably cause casualties including Hong Kong because of the banking sector’s exposure Fears over a 'tail risk' hard landing ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1431315/fears-over-tail-risk-hard-landing-china-are-growing
  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Chinese bank valuations imply a bad loan ratio of 13 per cent

    Posted Jan 22nd 2014, 12:44am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland That's about the same figure the lenders had in 2003 before they were restructured, and a far cry from the 0.97 per cent that the banks claim Chinese bank valuations imply a bad loan ratio of 13 per cent Yesterday the South China Morning Post reported that the price of mainland-listed bank shares had fallen below the book value of their net assets per share. ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1410657/chinese-bank-valuations-imply-bad-loan-ratio-13-cent
  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Neither Singapore nor Hong Kong is an Iceland waiting to happen

    Posted Feb 14th 2014, 12:42am by Tom Holland

    ... It's a scary thought. In the mid-2000s Iceland's banks leveraged up aggressively, effectively turning their barren mid-Atlantic island into a giant US$150 billion hedge fund. Things went well for a while. But when the crisis hit, the wheels came off Iceland's banking bandwagon. In three years the island's economy contracted by 40 per cent. Now Forbes warns ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1427348/neither-singapore-nor-hong-kong-iceland-waiting-happen
  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    After nine years, it's time to leave the stage

    Posted Mar 06th 2014, 12:25am by Tom Holland

    ... Pollution, corruption, wasteful investment, the failure of the state to embrace free competition, the fragility of the banking sector, and the weakness of the stock market all rated multiple columns ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1441327/after-nine-years-its-time-leave-stage
  5. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    The yuan is falling, but only because Beijing wants it to

    Posted Mar 03rd 2014, 02:59am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Despite talk of a greater role for market forces, the currency is still far from freely floating with constant interventions from the central bank The yuan is falling, but only ... and a greater role for market forces, the yuan remains neither fully convertible nor freely floating. The central bank continues to steer all the currency's movements. Each morning it dictates ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1438811/yuan-falling-only-because-beijing-wants-it
  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    A nice idea Mr Yam, but it will be a long time before it can fly

    Posted Feb 19th 2014, 01:27am by Tom Holland

    ... currency to the US dollar, given that the world's financial flows are overwhelmingly US dollar-denominated. The central bank imposes a high reserve requirement for one overriding reason: it’s ... on the People's Bank of China to ditch its reliance on reserve requirements for managing monetary policy, and to adopt a Western-style policy interest rate instead. Constraining monetary growth by forcing ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1430637/nice-idea-mr-yam-it-will-be-long-time-it-can-fly
  7. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Immigration and reclamation won't raise living standards

    Posted Feb 18th 2014, 04:34am by Tom Holland

    ... in Singapore than Hong Kong. If you apply the World Bank's formula to adjust for the differences in purchasing power between the Hong Kong and Singapore dollars, you find that whereas Hongkongers ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1429854/immigration-and-reclamation-wont-raise-living-standards
  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    George Osborne is wrong about China and the yuan

    Posted Feb 21st 2014, 12:24am by Tom Holland

    ... Committee adviser Yu Yongding explains, "this is a fundamental problem with the People's Bank of China's roadmap for [yuan] internationalisation". He ought to know. Just ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1432166/george-osborne-wrong-about-china-and-yuan
  9. Business - Banking & Finance - MONITOR

    Four reasons the yuan will struggle to gain acceptance

    Posted Feb 06th 2014, 04:24am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Open and well-regulated markets, transparent governance and solid banking system needed for Chinese currency’s rise to dominance Four reasons the yuan will struggle to gain ... in central bank portfolios of foreign reserves. Yet despite these advantages, the mark's progress stalled. Part of the problem was that although Germany's trade prowess was undoubted, its ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1421684/four-reasons-yuan-will-struggle-gain-acceptance
  10. Business - Banking & Finance - MONITOR

    The encouraging signs behind China's record funding figures

    Posted Feb 17th 2014, 04:47am by Tom Holland

    ... on Saturday. The bald numbers tell us that mainland banks last month made local and foreign-currency loans worth 1.48 trillion yuan (HK$1.9 trillion). That's the highest monthly lending figure ... the effects of slowing growth on the mainland, as many stock market investors are, then you might well conclude that January's pick-up in bank lending is welcome news because it will help support ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1429144/encouraging-signs-behind-chinas-record-funding-figures

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