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  1. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Occupy Central is no threat to Hong Kong's economy

    Posted Nov 28th 2013, 04:17am by Tom Holland

    ... to Hong Kong's economy Students sitting in the streets; lots of colourful banners; some noisy chanting with people banging gongs; a sprinkling of jugglers, mime artists and the like; a few ... movement's detractors say that it will be: a threat to Hong Kong's reputation as an international financial centre and damaging to the city's economy. Hong Kong's position ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1367337/occupy-central-no-threat-hong-kongs-economy
  2. Comment - Insight & Opinion - MONITOR

    A property slump will affect the whole of Hong Kong's economy

    Posted Jul 18th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland A property slump will affect the whole of HK's economy Last week Monitor argued that the gradual tapering of quantitative easing and the eventual increase in American ... other sectors of Hong Kong's domestic economy. First of all, a property bear market will erode consumer demand. With residential mortgage debt currently standing at 46 per cent of Hong ...

    http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1284926/property-slump-will-affect-whole-hong-kongs-economy
  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    After nine years, it's time to leave the stage

    Posted Mar 06th 2014, 12:25am by Tom Holland

    ... average. Within weeks the hapless Tung had stepped down, and today, two chiefs later, those hard times seem a distant memory. In the years since, Hong Kong's economy has grown by more than 40 ... those on the mainland, where many of the cities have altered almost beyond recognition. Nine years ago, China's economy ranked seventh in the world; smaller than Italy's. Today ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1441327/after-nine-years-its-time-leave-stage
  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fiscal report based on lunatic projection of capital spending

    Posted Mar 04th 2014, 05:09am by Tom Holland

    ... shrinks, the economy's growth rate will slow from 3.7 per cent now to a modest 2.5 per cent a year. And as economic growth slows, so- all else being equal- will the government's revenue ... a slowdown in the growth of Hong Kong's capital spending as the economy matures, the report assumes that public spending on capital works will rise from 3.2 per cent of gross domestic product ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1439605/fiscal-report-based-lunatic-projection-capital-spending
  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Who's more damaging, Hong Kong officials or Occupy Central?

    Posted Feb 25th 2014, 12:32am by Tom Holland

    ... to Hong Kong's economy. In any case, considering that Hong Kong isn't exactly short of shopping centres and that Occupy couldn't hope to obstruct access to more than a handful even ... economy by the government's insistence on raising more in revenues than it needs to fund its spending programmes. So if Hong Kong's editors are really worried about the damage being ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1434352/whos-more-damaging-hong-kong-officials-or-occupy-central
  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    We don't need a Future Fund. The future is already upon us

    Posted Mar 05th 2014, 01:34am by Tom Holland

    ... reduce the capital available to finance relatively efficient private investment. As the private sector gets crowded out, growth slows. The result is a weaker economy. So constraining government ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1440476/we-dont-need-future-fund-future-already-upon-us
  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fears over a 'tail risk' hard landing in China are growing

    Posted Feb 20th 2014, 01:10am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Any slump in the mainland economy will inevitably cause casualties including Hong Kong because of the banking sector’s exposure Fears over a 'tail risk' hard landing ... probable outcome for the Chinese economy, it remains a possibility. And the effects should China experience such a hard landing would be so severe and so widespread that the scenario, unlikely ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1431315/fears-over-tail-risk-hard-landing-china-are-growing
  8. Business - Banking & Finance - MONITOR

    Four reasons the yuan will struggle to gain acceptance

    Posted Feb 06th 2014, 04:24am by Tom Holland

    ... probably within the next decade or two. You can see why they think so. The fast growth of China's economy, its ascent as a trading power, the rapid spread of the yuan as a trade currency ... to the dollar. Germany's economy was growing quickly, and by the early 1980s, it had captured a 10 per cent share of global commerce, roughly the same as China today. The mark was widely adopted ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1421684/four-reasons-yuan-will-struggle-gain-acceptance
  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    George Osborne is wrong about China and the yuan

    Posted Feb 21st 2014, 12:24am by Tom Holland

    ... published yet). So China has only reduced the difference between its savings and investment by investing more. Far from rebalancing, as Osborne believes, the mainland's economy has become even ... to introduce more two-way risk into the yuan's exchange rate, the currency could easily weaken over the medium term. Meanwhile, as China's economy slows, its equilibrium interest rate ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1432166/george-osborne-wrong-about-china-and-yuan
  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Neither Singapore nor Hong Kong is an Iceland waiting to happen

    Posted Feb 14th 2014, 12:42am by Tom Holland

    ... is an Iceland waiting to happen Thank you to the reader who pointed me towards the recent Forbes article warning that "Singapore's economy is heading for an Iceland-style meltdown". ... well for a while. But when the crisis hit, the wheels came off Iceland's banking bandwagon. In three years the island's economy contracted by 40 per cent. Now Forbes warns ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1427348/neither-singapore-nor-hong-kong-iceland-waiting-happen

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