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  • July 31, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    A nice idea Mr Yam, but it will be a long time before it can fly

    Posted Feb 19th 2014, 01:27am by Tom Holland

    ... less on its foreign currency assets than it would have to pay on its domestic liabilities. So instead the PBOC relies on the second method. It simply orders China's banks to lodge ... the country's financial system gets enormous net inflows of foreign money. Normally all that cash pouring in would push the yuan sharply higher on the foreign exchange market. However, to prevent ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1430637/nice-idea-mr-yam-it-will-be-long-time-it-can-fly
  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    After nine years, it's time to leave the stage

    Posted Mar 06th 2014, 12:25am by Tom Holland

    ... it is second only to the United States and is widely tipped to reach number one by the end of the decade. Back then an estimated 94 million mainlanders had access to the internet. Today the number ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1441327/after-nine-years-its-time-leave-stage
  3. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    The yuan is falling, but only because Beijing wants it to

    Posted Mar 03rd 2014, 02:59am by Tom Holland

    ... January alone, companies and households in the onshore market sold enough foreign currency to buy an astonishing 460 billion yuan (HK$582 billion). To put the size of that flow into perspective, ... intervene in sufficient volume to prevent the yuan from appreciating under the pressure of the inflows. But if it does, it will continue to accumulate foreign-currency assets like US Treasury bonds, ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1438811/yuan-falling-only-because-beijing-wants-it
  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Even an export rebound won't do much to lift China growth

    Posted Feb 13th 2014, 01:07am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland As the mainland has become an economic powerhouse in recent years, foreign demand now plays a much smaller role in driving expansion Even an export rebound won't do much ... In fact, imports were also strong, rising by a chunky 10 per cent. Second, if over-invoicing were responsible for exaggerating exports, you would have expected shipments to Hong Kong- hot ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1426699/even-export-rebound-wont-do-much-lift-china-growth
  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Who's more damaging, Hong Kong officials or Occupy Central?

    Posted Feb 25th 2014, 12:32am by Tom Holland

    ... inconvenience. Next, there is the threat that Occupy could scare off foreign investors. This is ludicrous. Far from relying on foreign investment, Hong Kong is a sizeable net capital exporter. Sure, ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1434352/whos-more-damaging-hong-kong-officials-or-occupy-central
  6. Business - Banking & Finance - MONITOR

    The encouraging signs behind China's record funding figures

    Posted Feb 17th 2014, 04:47am by Tom Holland

    ... on Saturday. The bald numbers tell us that mainland banks last month made local and foreign-currency loans worth 1.48 trillion yuan (HK$1.9 trillion). That's the highest monthly lending figure ... a further step back, it is plain that monetary conditions on the mainland have been tightening over recent months. The second chart shows the year-on-year changes in total new financing since ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1429144/encouraging-signs-behind-chinas-record-funding-figures
  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    It's not heresy to expect grand projects to pay for themselves

    Posted Feb 28th 2014, 01:01am by Tom Holland

    ... it simply isn't workable- merely the glib fancy of a newspaper columnist who doesn't have to put his ideas into practice. The second objection carries more weight, so let's deal ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1436598/its-not-heresy-expect-grand-projects-pay-themselves
  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    China may have problems, but this scare story isn't one of them

    Posted Feb 04th 2014, 05:57am by Tom Holland

    ... edition of London's Daily Telegraph. The article noted nervously that foreign currency borrowing by Chinese companies has almost quadrupled in just four years to more than US$1 trillion. Any ... be no danger of a global financial meltdown. It is certainly true that China's foreign liabilities have grown rapidly in recent years; a quadrupling since 2009 is about right. But, if anything, ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1420190/china-may-have-problems-scare-story-isnt-one-them
  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fears over a 'tail risk' hard landing in China are growing

    Posted Feb 20th 2014, 01:10am by Tom Holland

    ... inches to foreign bank economists worried about the dangers posed by China's ballooning debt levels. As a crisis prevention measure, that's like thinking you can eliminate the threat ... 90 per cent of Mongolia's exports bought by China, but in recent years the country has seen a massive boom in credit funded by foreign capital inflows; inflows which would quickly vanish ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1431315/fears-over-tail-risk-hard-landing-china-are-growing
  10. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Immigration and reclamation won't raise living standards

    Posted Feb 18th 2014, 04:34am by Tom Holland

    ... Kong's favour. As the second chart shows, in 2003 the average Hongkonger was 20 per cent better off than the average Singaporean. In 2012 he or she was nearly 50 per cent better off. Clearly, ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1429854/immigration-and-reclamation-wont-raise-living-standards

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