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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Blame greed, not the yuan, for Hong Kong's food price rises

    Posted Nov 07th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... this view. In the first chart, the blue line shows the percentage change in value of the yuan against the Hong Kong dollar over the preceding 12 months, while the red line shows the rate of food ... There are some good reasons to think that movements in the yuan-Hong Kong dollar exchange rate may not be as important in driving food inflation as they first appear. Look at the first chart again. ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1076498/blame-greed-not-yuan-hong-kongs-food-price-rises
  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Don't hold your breath for big bang China financial reform

    Posted Nov 13th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland There are entrenched groups that are against further interest rate liberalisation; and the bond market has a few hurdles to scale Don't hold your breath for big bang China ... should develop a multi-level capital market, take steady steps to make interest rates and the renminbi exchange rate more market-based and promote the renminbi's convertibility," he ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1081064/dont-hold-your-breath-big-bang-china-financial-reform
  3. Business - China Business - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Worrying economic parallels between China and India

    Posted May 21st 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... this week, Chinese premier Li Keqiang may well have been struck by some disquieting parallels. After years of rapid expansion, each country is now seeing a steep decline in its rate of economic ... stifle future progress. For much of the last 10 years, India enjoyed near double-digit growth rates in its gross domestic product. But that growth was driven largely by high government spending, ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1242265/worrying-economic-parallels-between-china-and-india
  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Think of China as a continent, not as one national economy

    Posted Nov 26th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland While rich regions' growth rates may slow, poorer provinces still have plenty of catching up to do before they approach the middle income trap Think of China ... in growth rates that afflicts some emerging economies once they reach a certain level of development. The examples cited most often are in Latin America. In the 1960s and 1970s, economists predicted ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1090755/think-china-continent-not-one-national-economy
  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Hu betrays muddled thinking about China's economic future

    Posted Nov 09th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... has nothing to do with high personal savings rates inspired by some Confucian notion of thrift. Instead private consumption has declined relative to gross domestic product because household ... modest compared with the growth rates of recent years. And doubling per capita incomes will surely boost household spending power. But consider for a moment: if GDP doubles, and personal incomes ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1078091/hu-betrays-muddled-thinking-about-chinas-economic-future
  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Both good and bad news in China's property rebound

    Posted Jan 14th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... in November from a year earlier, up from a growth rate of just 5 per cent in July (see the second chart). To the vast majority of watchers, this rebound in property investment is unambiguously ... growth rates, but on the health of the broader global economy. Any downturn in property investment means slacker demand for construction materials and equipment. In turn, that means a softening ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1127324/both-good-and-bad-news-chinas-property-rebound
  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Hong Kong's out-of-pocket medical expenses set to double by 2020

    Posted Dec 14th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland A survey examining expected growth, the rise in population, and relatively high inflation rate for medical services proves painful reading HK's out-of-pocket medical ... Kong's expected economic growth, the growth in our population, and the relatively high rate of inflation for medical services (see the second chart). As a result, they estimated ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1104776/hong-kongs-out-pocket-medical-expenses-set-double-2020
  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Some surprising new recruits join the ranks of China bears

    Posted Dec 05th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... is misallocating capital at an unprecedented rate come mostly from independent research houses, or from hedge funds with short exposure to Chinese markets. Recently, however, the bearish faction has ... been overinvesting by between 12 and 20 per cent of GDP, relative to its sustainable long run rate. Unfortunately, the economy is now running up against the law of diminishing returns. ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1097571/some-surprising-new-recruits-join-ranks-china-bears
  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Cautionary fable from 1994 holds good for China today

    Posted Nov 27th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... that this posed a problem for the tigers' development. You can double your labour force participation rate from 30 per cent to 60 per cent, but you can't double it again. And you can increase ... implying that China's high growth rates were more sustainable. Today the picture is less encouraging. In a study published earlier this month, Charles Dumas, chairman of independent ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1091571/cautionary-fable-1994-holds-good-china-today
  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

    Cyclically bullish on China's market but a structural bear

    Posted Jan 11th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... system's reserves deposited at the central bank). Shown by the black line in the first chart, this measures China's credit multiplier effect. And as the chart shows, when its rate of change ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1125006/cyclically-bullish-chinas-market-structural-bear

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