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  1. China in danger of losing gold medal for competitiveness

    Posted Jul 17th 2012, 12:00am

    ... Tom Holland The 2012 Olympic Games aren't due to begin for another 10 days, but China has already taken the gold medal for competitiveness. When the athletes of Team US march into London's new Olympic stadium for the opening ceremony next Friday, they will be wearing uniforms made, not in America, but in China. Forget for a moment that the high-value element ...

  2. Looming US dollar shortage could wreak massive damage

    Posted Jun 26th 2012, 12:00am

    ... Tom Holland Yesterday the yuan fell to its weakest against the US dollar since late last year. In just the last couple of months, the Chinese currency has fallen 1.3 per cent. That's a big slide for a currency most people believe is locked into a long-term strengthening trend (see the first chart). The yuan isn't alone. Over the last few weeks the currencies ...

  3. Yam's call to ditch the HK$ peg doesn't stand scrutiny

    Posted Jun 13th 2012, 12:00am

    ... Tom Holland Joseph Yam Chi-kwong thinks Hong Kong should ditch its long-standing currency peg to the US dollar. Instead, the former Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) boss is proposing that the Hong Kong dollar should be managed in a flexible 'corridor' against either the US dollar, the yuan, or perhaps an undisclosed basket of currencies. For someone who spent 26 years ...

  4. Yuan band move makes a virtue out of market necessity

    Posted Apr 16th 2012, 12:00am

    ... Tom Holland You have to admire Beijing's timing. On Saturday the People's Bank of China announced it would widen the daily trading band of China's currency. From today, the yuan will be allowed to fluctuate by as much as 1 per cent either side of a central reference rate against the US dollar, double the width of the previous trading range. By itself, the move ...

  5. Despite high hopes, yuan will remain a second-rate currency

    Posted Mar 21st 2012, 12:00am

    ... Tom Holland Speaking earlier this week, Premier Wen Jiabao told an audience of policymakers and business bosses that the yuan is heading irreversibly for full convertibility. 'As for yuan internationalisation, when it is coming, you can't stop it even you want to,' he declared at the China Development Forum in Beijing. Wen's words will have warmed the hearts ...

  6. Five reasons yuan is no threat to dollar as reserve currency

    Posted Feb 10th 2012, 12:00am

    ... Tom Holland tom.holland@scmp.com If I had US$100 billion for every time someone has told me that the yuan is going to displace the US dollar as the world's foremost reserve currency, I reckon I'd have almost as much in foreign reserves as China. Yet I remain sceptical. For the yuan to become a major reserve currency, China will first have to fulfil several important ...

  7. A lesson from the Nixon era for the world of today

    Posted Dec 05th 2011, 12:00am

    ... Tom Holland It's 40 years since the beginning of the end for the Bretton Woods system, the agreement which fixed exchange rates between the world's major economies for a quarter of a century following the end of the second world war. It might seem that the world has changed immeasurably over the intervening decades, and that the demise of Bretton Woods has little to teach us ...

  8. Could the US dollar really collapse 33pc in a single day?

    Posted Nov 21st 2011, 12:00am

    ... Tom Holland In Shengshi: Zhongguo 2013, Chan Koonchung's satirical novel of the near future (published in English as The Fat Years), 'China's golden age of ascendancy' is ushered in by a new financial crisis in which the US dollar loses a third of its value in a single day. In Chan's book, the US dollar's collapse is a handy plot device. ...

  9. The US is to China what Italy and Greece are to Germany

    Posted Nov 11th 2011, 12:00am

    ... Tom Holland It was 'risk-off' all over again in Asia yesterday. Stock markets across the region tumbled after Italian government bond yields entered the perceived default danger zone above 7 per cent. At that rate of interest, markets doubt Rome's ability to refinance the Euro238 billion (HK$2.51 trillion) of government bonds maturing over the next two years ...

  10. The ruinous costs of China's 'free-ride' currency policy

    Posted Oct 11th 2011, 12:00am

    ... Tom Holland tom.holland@scmp.com In Washington, the United States Senate is debating a bill that threatens to slap trade penalties on China for deliberately holding down the value of its currency. In Beijing, officials are indignant with outrage. Forcing China to appreciate its currency will benefit no one, they insist. But although they may well be right to argue that more rapid ...




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