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  • August 31, 2014
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  1. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Why 4 per cent annual growth will be great news for China

    Posted Oct 07th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland With faster wage increases resulting from a smaller but more productive workforce, the long-awaited consumption miracle will become a reality Why 4 per cent annual growth will be great news for China The business of forecasting the mainland's economic growth rate is a bit like a game of bingo. The analysts who have to come up with a forecast have a pretty good idea ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    A 15-hour work week sounds great, but we'd still want more

    Posted Sep 23rd 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Our failure to spend more time in leisure is a result of our desire for material wealth with an emphasis on output growth for its own sake A 15-hour work week sounds great ... is of limited use in gauging economic development. It's great at measuring output, but tells you nothing about the cost of that output in environmental or human welfare terms. But although ...

  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    George Osborne is wrong about China and the yuan

    Posted Feb 21st 2014, 12:24am by Tom Holland

    ... perform so much better than their British peers in maths tests (even though, as Lai See explained this week, the statistical sampling errors involved in scoring these tests are so great ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Even Hong Kong's best efforts may not help to clear our air

    Posted Feb 12th 2014, 12:46am by Tom Holland

    ... stuff that poisons us the most is indeed pumped out here in our streets, Hong Kong also suffers from what we might call ambient pollution: the murky haze that rolls down from the great mainland ...

  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Less toxic than before, but Cinda still isn't a great buy

    Posted Aug 20th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Amid suspicion over bad-debt warehouse Cinda’s balance sheet, it seems to have been repaying its bonds, presumably with help from Beijing Less toxic than before, but Cinda still isn't a great buy I am grateful to the reader who wrote in response to yesterday's Monitor, drawing my attention to the note concerning "debt securities classified ...

  6. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Continued yuan appreciation is no longer such a sure thing

    Posted Feb 10th 2014, 04:31am by Tom Holland

    ... As a result, we can reckon that a devaluation roughly half as great back at the end of 1993 would have put the yuan somewhere close to its fair value against a broad basket of other currencies. ...

  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Spending on old folks isn't the problem- it's the solution

    Posted Jan 14th 2014, 01:37am by Tom Holland

    ... neighbours, let's assume their health costs are four times as great (and twice as great as children's health costs). Let's also assume that over the coming decades health inflation ...

  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Chinese bank valuations imply a bad loan ratio of 13 per cent

    Posted Jan 22nd 2014, 12:44am by Tom Holland

    ... shares listed in Hong Kong, the long-term average is 1.75. Some observers argue that the current abnormally low valuation of China's banks is an aberration which represents a great buying ...

  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Despite talk of reform, no sign of rebalancing in China's data

    Posted Jan 21st 2014, 01:05am by Tom Holland

    ... for fixed-asset investment is not a great proxy for the fixed-investment component of GDP. For one thing it includes land sales, which shouldn't count towards capital formation. Similarly, retail ...

  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    It pays China to block global deals on climate and trade

    Posted Dec 17th 2013, 03:19am by Tom Holland

    ... trade barriers remains as elusive as ever. Perhaps the failure of these international negotiations shouldn't be too surprising. Treated separately, the complexity of both climate and trade ...




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