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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Even IMF staffers are warning of an economic crisis in China

    Posted Oct 10th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Malhar Nabar and Papa N'Diaye warn that without significant policy changes, China's economy may fall off the rails and take years to recover Even IMF staffers ... to come. The IMF's staffers are alarmed by the way credit in China is ballooning. "In other economies, credit expansions of this kind have often been associated with large mispricing ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1328127/even-imf-staffers-are-warning-economic-crisis-china
  2. If the IMF's worried, maybe the rest of us can all relax

    Posted Nov 05th 2009, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... they are worried about bubbles in Hong Kong's property and stock markets. This is a troubling development for a financial columnist. After all, the IMF doesn't exactly boast a record ... collapse. So if the IMF now warns about the danger of credit-fuelled asset bubbles, it is only natural for Monitor to re-examine its own concerns to see if they still stand up. Let's start ...

    http://www.scmp.com/article/697424/if-imfs-worried-maybe-rest-us-can-all-relax
  3. Worst of corporate pain still to come for Asia, IMF warns

    Posted May 08th 2009, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... likely default rates, the IMF conducted a 'contingent claims analysis' for corporate Asia, essentially a stress test that forecasts how balance sheets behave with changing economic ... That's considerably milder than in 1998, when the equivalent risk figure hit 19 per cent. Even so, the costs are likely to be heavy. The IMF projected corporate default risks forward under its ...

    http://www.scmp.com/article/679577/worst-corporate-pain-still-come-asia-imf-warns
  4. New IMF umpire unlikely to whip US into line on deficit

    Posted May 23rd 2006, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... and encouraging its citizens to save more, generating more domestic demand in Europe and persuading Asian governments to allow more exchange rate flexibility. Exactly how the IMF is supposed to achieve these goals when the only real power it possesses is over countries it has lent money to in a crisis is not yet clear. The plan outlined last month seemed to envisage the IMF as a sort of global ...

    http://www.scmp.com/article/549952/new-imf-umpire-unlikely-whip-us-line-deficit
  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The 4.3tr yuan cost of financial openness

    Posted Oct 01st 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... outflow could reach 9 trillion yuan, or 18 per cent of China's GDP. However, you don't have to accept my back-of-a-napkin sums. The financial boffins at the IMF have spent far more time ... and 9.9 per cent of China's GDP into the onshore debt and equity markets. Clearly the influx of so much money would risk a severe case of domestic financial indigestion. But, warn the IMF ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1321681/43tr-yuan-cost-financial-openness
  6. The whole world may be in danger of turning Japanese

    Posted Oct 06th 2009, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... hitting 9 per cent, the same rate as last year, the IMF believes. Most private-sector analysts share the IMF's rosy short-term outlook. Economists at Goldman Sachs, for example, ... gains in the countryside. Either measure could help kick-start domestic demand, finally positioning China really to lead the global economy into recovery, just like the IMF is forecasting. ...

    http://www.scmp.com/article/694645/whole-world-may-be-danger-turning-japanese
  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Allowing free capital flows is fast going out of fashion

    Posted Sep 27th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... consider imposing capital controls to stop inflows of hot money fuelling asset bubbles and inflation. Now, with the Federal Reserve moving towards ending its monetary stimulus, current IMF managing ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1318515/allowing-free-capital-flows-fast-going-out-fashion
  8. Two new ways Asia can help solve the world's problems

    Posted Oct 30th 2009, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... of state health-care or pension provisions. But although there is some truth in this view, it is hardly the whole picture. As the IMF points out in its regional economic outlook published ... The answer, according to the IMF, is to strengthen corporate financing options, so companies no longer need to hang on to earnings, while beefing up corporate governance standards to ensure a better ...

    http://www.scmp.com/article/696875/two-new-ways-asia-can-help-solve-worlds-problems
  9. A cynical stimulus package, and an unheeded warning

    Posted Nov 12th 2008, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... of G20 heads of government in Washington. Talking of the G20 meeting, on Monday British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called on world leaders to use the occasion to reform the IMF so ... on the world stage than he is interested in the role of the IMF. If he had been paying attention, he would know that the fund rejigged itself following the Asian crisis precisely so that it could give ...

    http://www.scmp.com/article/659836/cynical-stimulus-package-and-unheeded-warning
  10. Beijing has its reasons to turn a deaf ear on revaluation

    Posted Sep 21st 2005, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... exchange rate flexibility, with some IMF directors recommending 'that the authorities allow the exchange rate to move more quickly'. Others have been less moderate in their language. ... ahead of the IMF's autumn meeting. It is likely to be an awkward encounter. Mr Snow is under intense domestic pressure to screw a second, bigger revaluation out of Beijing, or formally ...

    http://www.scmp.com/article/517093/beijing-has-its-reasons-turn-deaf-ear-revaluation

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