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  • September 19, 2014
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  1. Business - China Business - MONITOR

    It's tough, but China must let trust company products fail

    Posted Jan 27th 2014, 04:23am by Tom Holland

    ... let trust company products fail The 700 investors in China's "Credit Equals Gold No1 Trust" are hoping that Industrial and Commercial Bank of China will bail them out. ... that sell them. In other words, savers typically see an investment in trust company loans as the equivalent of a zero-risk deposit in a state-owned bank, only with a higher return. At the same time, ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    HK$146 billion hole reveals Shenzhen's illicit carry trade

    Posted May 29th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... What's happening is that mainland companies are massively overstating the value of their export shipments to take advantage of a profitable interest-rate carry trade. With US dollar interest ... head of global markets research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, last month a simple US dollar-yuan carry trade would have earned a return of 0.27 per cent. That might not sound a lot, ...

  3. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    The yuan is falling, but only because Beijing wants it to

    Posted Mar 03rd 2014, 02:59am by Tom Holland

    ... January alone, companies and households in the onshore market sold enough foreign currency to buy an astonishing 460 billion yuan (HK$582 billion). To put the size of that flow into perspective, ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    George Osborne is wrong about China and the yuan

    Posted Feb 21st 2014, 12:24am by Tom Holland

    ... and interest rate arbitrages. The yuan has been strengthening, so people and companies offshore have been happy to hold it. Similarly, in an era of low interest rates, yields on the yuan are relatively ...

  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fears over a 'tail risk' hard landing in China are growing

    Posted Feb 20th 2014, 01:10am by Tom Holland

    ... the earnings per share of Hang Seng Index companies by 25 per cent, which in turn would drive a 32 per cent fall in the index level. For protection, Morgan Stanley recommends that investors should buy ...

  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The US$50b a year reason China's elite love tax havens

    Posted Jan 23rd 2014, 01:13am by Tom Holland

    ... that close relatives of many of China's senior leaders own companies registered in offshore tax havens including the British Virgin Islands. In terms of revelatory shock, this story has as much ... daughter and Deng Xiaoping's son-in-law, among others, all have ties to companies in jurisdictions like the BVI with minimal disclosure and no corporate taxes. However, beyond saying that tax ...

  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    By avoiding a small crisis now China risks a big one in future

    Posted Jan 29th 2014, 05:02am by Tom Holland

    ... the traditional store house for ICBC's bad assets; state insurance giant PICC, which owns a third of the trust company that structured the product; and the provincial government of Shanxi, the original backer of the failed coal company that borrowed the money in the first place. It could be none, any, or all of them. But whichever it is, no one can doubt that China's authorities ...

  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    China may have problems, but this scare story isn't one of them

    Posted Feb 04th 2014, 05:57am by Tom Holland

    ... edition of London's Daily Telegraph. The article noted nervously that foreign currency borrowing by Chinese companies has almost quadrupled in just four years to more than US$1 trillion. Any ... borrowing costs, in the boom years of the mid-1990s Indonesian companies ran up foreign currency debts worth more than 50 per cent of the country's GDP. Worse, many of those debts carried only ...

  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The essential financial reform Beijing cannot afford to ignore

    Posted Jan 28th 2014, 01:27am by Tom Holland

    ... value in terms of generating regular income. On the other hand, they could sell it to private companies for development. Even better, they could set up their own companies and hand them the land use rights, which they could then use as collateral against bank loans to fund infrastructure development. So local government-backed investment companies, often called local government ...

  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Beijing's financial reforms will push up interest rates

    Posted Jan 16th 2014, 11:41pm by Tom Holland

    ... because the central bank still dictates the maximum interest rates that mainland households and companies can earn on their bank deposits. And the rates it decrees are low. At present, the highest ... desperately needed Beijing must also stress that the government does not guarantee bank loans to state-owned companies or local government-backed investment projects. Only when these implicit ...




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