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  • September 17, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Crystal ball was cloudy last year, but it had its moments

    Posted Jan 03rd 2014, 01:48am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Making predictions is tricky, as Monitor’s record for 2013 shows. But we got it right in areas like US equities and the city property market Crystal ball was cloudy last year, ... that liquidity would be the driving force behind stock market performance in 2013. With interest rates set to remain near zero and plenty of liquidity sloshing around Hong Kong's financial system, ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Hong Kong government must change the way it taxes property

    Posted Aug 15th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland The lump-sum land-premium system should be replaced with a scheme whereby rental income is collected from leaseholders Government must change the way it taxes property In his budget speech earlier this year, Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah painted a grim picture of Hong Kong's economic future, and of the outlook for the government's finances. ...

  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Hong Kong's wealth fund is doing a lousy job investing our money

    Posted Jan 24th 2014, 02:13am by Tom Holland

    ... investment performance is abysmal. Yesterday the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the Exchange Fund's results for 2013. It managed a return of just 2.7 per cent. When you consider ... be invested with a little more imagination Then, when you go on to consider that the benchmark S&P 500 Index of US stocks rose a handsome 32 per cent in 2013, the Exchange Fund's performance ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    How to make two problems worse with just one policy

    Posted Feb 25th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Higher taxes for homebuyers will merely make property prices even more unaffordable, while adding to the government's unused cash pile How to make two problems worse ... government has money coming out of its ears. First: the property market. Home prices have doubled in the last four years. As a result, a typical Hong Kong family would have to save every cent ...

  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The essential financial reform Beijing cannot afford to ignore

    Posted Jan 28th 2014, 01:27am by Tom Holland

    ... cannot afford to ignore The 10 years of Hu Jintao's presidency from 2003 to 2013 are often described as a period of policy stagnation for China. Sure, the economy expanded at a stunning ... roads, waterworks, industrial parks and thousands of the glittering property developments which began springing up everywhere. China's state banks were happy to lend. After all, ...

  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Investors' fears of fiscal tightening by Beijing are over-blown

    Posted Feb 22nd 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... are overdone All it took was a warning from Beijing that the mainland's local governments should keep a tight rein on property market speculation, coupled with a move from the central bank ... investors should not be too downhearted. Beijing's warning on property speculation might have sounded fierce. But in reality it was simply a reminder that local authorities should keep present ...

  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Despite setbacks, the long-term outlook for copper is bright

    Posted Aug 13th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... the long-term outlook for copper is bright In August last year, in the wake of the acquisition of the London Metal Exchange by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, Monitor examined the outlook ... fundamental outlook for China's copper demand, and for the metal's price, is actually rather positive. Although China currently makes up for about 40 per cent of global demand, in relative ...

  8. Comment - Insight & Opinion - MONITOR

    The unintended consequences of Hong Kong's property policies

    Posted Nov 29th 2013, 04:27am by Tom Holland

    ... of HK's property policies Hong Kong officials invariably mean well. But it is uncanny how often government policies end up achieving not their intended effect, but the exact opposite. Nowhere is this more true than in the property market. Just consider the housing policy announced by the first post-handover administration. In a bid to boost his popularity, then chief executive Tung Chee-hwa ...

  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fiscal report based on lunatic projection of capital spending

    Posted Mar 04th 2014, 05:09am by Tom Holland

    ... this year to 7.2 per cent in 2041. There’s a limit to how many roads, bridges and tunnels Hong Kong needs In 2013 dollars, that means government spending on infrastructure will rise from HK$72 ...

  10. Business - Banking & Finance - MONITOR

    The encouraging signs behind China's record funding figures

    Posted Feb 17th 2014, 04:47am by Tom Holland

    ... months, while the value of potentially troublesome new trust loans extended last month fell by half compared with January 2013. In contrast, longer-term equity financing picked up handsomely. ... for new financing was a record, in real terms, relative to the size of the overall economy, last month's figure represented a deceleration compared with January 2013. And if you take ...




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