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  • April 16, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Crystal ball was cloudy last year, but it had its moments

    Posted Jan 03rd 2014, 01:48am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Making predictions is tricky, as Monitor’s record for 2013 shows. But we got it right in areas like US equities and the city property market Crystal ball was cloudy last year, ... that liquidity would be the driving force behind stock market performance in 2013. With interest rates set to remain near zero and plenty of liquidity sloshing around Hong Kong's financial system, ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1396145/crystal-ball-was-cloudy-last-year-it-had-its-moments
  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fiscal report based on lunatic projection of capital spending

    Posted Mar 04th 2014, 05:09am by Tom Holland

    ... this year to 7.2 per cent in 2041. There’s a limit to how many roads, bridges and tunnels Hong Kong needs In 2013 dollars, that means government spending on infrastructure will rise from HK$72 ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1439605/fiscal-report-based-lunatic-projection-capital-spending
  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    After nine years, it's time to leave the stage

    Posted Mar 06th 2014, 12:25am by Tom Holland

    ... Chee-hwa was still the chief executive of Hong Kong's government, and the city was struggling to emerge from a six-year-long deflationary slump. Property prices were down by half from ... per cent in real terms. The property market has soared 130 per cent. The Hang Seng Index is up 63 per cent, and unemployment has fallen by half. However, the changes in Hong Kong pale beside ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1441327/after-nine-years-its-time-leave-stage
  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Hong Kong's wealth fund is doing a lousy job investing our money

    Posted Jan 24th 2014, 02:13am by Tom Holland

    ... investment performance is abysmal. Yesterday the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the Exchange Fund's results for 2013. It managed a return of just 2.7 per cent. When you consider ... be invested with a little more imagination Then, when you go on to consider that the benchmark S&P 500 Index of US stocks rose a handsome 32 per cent in 2013, the Exchange Fund's performance ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1412068/hong-kongs-wealth-fund-doing-lousy-job-investing-our-money
  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Who's more damaging, Hong Kong officials or Occupy Central?

    Posted Feb 25th 2014, 12:32am by Tom Holland

    ... But the stuff they buy is all imported. That means only a relatively small amount of visitors' retail spending- around 20 per cent according to Monitor 's 2013 estimate- actually contributes ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1434352/whos-more-damaging-hong-kong-officials-or-occupy-central
  6. Business - Banking & Finance - MONITOR

    The encouraging signs behind China's record funding figures

    Posted Feb 17th 2014, 04:47am by Tom Holland

    ... months, while the value of potentially troublesome new trust loans extended last month fell by half compared with January 2013. In contrast, longer-term equity financing picked up handsomely. ... for new financing was a record, in real terms, relative to the size of the overall economy, last month's figure represented a deceleration compared with January 2013. And if you take ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1429144/encouraging-signs-behind-chinas-record-funding-figures
  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    It's not heresy to expect grand projects to pay for themselves

    Posted Feb 28th 2014, 01:01am by Tom Holland

    ... a painfully steep hidden tax in the form of sky-high property costs. For example, in line with the government's much-vaunted "user pays principle", we could charge visitors to the city ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1436598/its-not-heresy-expect-grand-projects-pay-themselves
  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The essential financial reform Beijing cannot afford to ignore

    Posted Jan 28th 2014, 01:27am by Tom Holland

    ... cannot afford to ignore The 10 years of Hu Jintao's presidency from 2003 to 2013 are often described as a period of policy stagnation for China. Sure, the economy expanded at a stunning ... roads, waterworks, industrial parks and thousands of the glittering property developments which began springing up everywhere. China's state banks were happy to lend. After all, ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1415294/essential-financial-reform-beijing-cannot-afford-ignore
  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Even an export rebound won't do much to lift China growth

    Posted Feb 13th 2014, 01:07am by Tom Holland

    ... with January 2013. Most forecasters had expected them to be flat. [The developed markets] are not going to grow as quickly as in the years running up to 2007 What's more, it was difficult to blame ... figures, has declined by more than half from 7.5 per cent of GDP to just 2.8 per cent in 2013. In short, exports are no longer the economic force they once were, which is why ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1426699/even-export-rebound-wont-do-much-lift-china-growth
  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Neither Singapore nor Hong Kong is an Iceland waiting to happen

    Posted Feb 14th 2014, 12:42am by Tom Holland

    ... inflating a property bubble which pushed home prices up by a third. Bank lending to domestic and overseas borrowers ballooned, with the assets of Singapore's banks rising to S$2.1 trillion ... The government has imposed a series of administrative restrictions aimed at cooling the property market, while the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has sounded the alarm about rising levels of consumer debt ...

    http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1427348/neither-singapore-nor-hong-kong-iceland-waiting-happen

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