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  • November 29, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Who's more damaging, Hong Kong officials or Occupy Central?

    Posted Feb 25th 2014, 12:32am by Tom Holland

    ... not the Occupy organisers. Next, if the Occupy movement really were to deter tourists, it is likely many Hongkongers would be grateful. In reality, however, the economic impact will be minimal. The vast ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    China may have problems, but this scare story isn't one of them

    Posted Feb 04th 2014, 05:57am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland While alarmist talk of global meltdown sparked by a currency crisis at Chinese banks fires up doom merchants, the reality is more reassuring China may have problems, but this scare story isn't one of them As a headline, it was certainly eye-catching. "Currency crisis at Chinese banks could trigger global meltdown," declared a story in the Sunday ...

  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    A healthy China would set interest rates at 10 per cent

    Posted Jan 05th 2014, 11:49pm by Tom Holland

    ... intervened reluctantly. Policymakers are well aware that despite official insistence that China is pursuing a "prudent" monetary policy, in reality monetary conditions have been far too ...

  4. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Beijing's statistical sleight of hand

    Posted Dec 06th 2013, 05:09am by Tom Holland

    ... has played down price increases, while in reality consumer inflation has repeatedly hit double-digit rates (see the chart). This tendency to tamper with price data shouldn't be too ... in 2007 and 2008. "Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version of reality," they note, implying that China's actual economic performance has been far ...

  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    It pays China to block global deals on climate and trade

    Posted Dec 17th 2013, 03:19am by Tom Holland

    ... talks is stunning. But in reality, trade and climate cannot be treated separately. Unless countries see eye to eye on trade, a climate deal won't work. And without a global agreement ...

  6. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Beijing's targets likely to play down growth for reform focus

    Posted Dec 09th 2013, 04:50am by Tom Holland

    ... in reality the authorities have been tightening China's monetary conditions for the past six months in an attempt to slow the country's rapid credit growth. In the past five years, ...

  7. Business - Commodities - MONITOR

    Oil price heading for US$200 as China's imports set to surge

    Posted Oct 14th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... But in reality, with supplies tight and politics unpredictable, "prices will continue to spike over the next five years, occasionally reaching US$200 per barrel", he predicts. That's going ...

  8. Business - Economy - MONITOR

    Why 4 per cent annual growth will be great news for China

    Posted Oct 07th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland With faster wage increases resulting from a smaller but more productive workforce, the long-awaited consumption miracle will become a reality Why 4 per cent annual growth will be great news for China The business of forecasting the mainland's economic growth rate is a bit like a game of bingo. The analysts who have to come up with a forecast have a pretty good idea ...

  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Five years later, what has the mini-bond scandal taught us?

    Posted Sep 18th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... you've forgotten, or if you were lucky enough never to know in the first place, Lehman's mini-bonds weren't bonds at all. The name was intended to inspire confidence, but in reality ...

  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Official manipulation adds 10 per cent to China's GDP

    Posted Aug 12th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... high. Suspicion- even strong suspicion- comes easily. But working out exactly how officials tweak the data, and estimating the size of the resulting discrepancy between appearance and reality ... in China's cities, where they say property prices have risen more slowly than in rural areas. In reality, some 48 per cent of people still live in the countryside. And then to cap everything, housing ...




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