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  • November 29, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Declining property investment the key to China's slowdown

    Posted Sep 14th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... to find the cause of the recent slowdown, we'll have to search elsewhere. One obvious thing to look at is residential property investment. Back in early 2010 Beijing introduced a suite ... the year-on-year growth rate of investment in residential property had fallen to just 5 per cent, down from 38 per cent a year earlier. The decline mattered. Independent research house Capital Economics ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    The great attraction of cash extraction

    Posted Nov 15th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... and speculative home-buyers will simply shunt them away from residential properties and towards the industrial sector, where the new taxes do not apply. Sceptical commentators have dismissed this as mere ... Singapore suggests the industrial property bulls may have a point. In January last year the Singapore government imposed its own special stamp duties on residential properties flipped back ...

  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    'Strange and worrying' that Hong Kong government doesn't get it

    Posted Oct 16th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland For any confused officials, here's a quick rundown on the critical factors propelling the city's residential property prices up into the stratosphere 'Strange ... the city's residential property market? Evidently it is. So, for all those government officials confounded by the market's buoyancy, here's a brief primer on why Hong Kong home prices ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Hong Kong's stamp duties are woefully inefficient ways to tax

    Posted Oct 22nd 2013, 03:27am by Tom Holland

    ... in the higher rates on more expensive properties, and punitive duties on quick sales and on buyers who are not permanent residents, then it is likely overall revenues from stamp duties on residential ... of residential transactions has slumped from about 8,000 a month to 4,000. With prices remaining stable, that means the value of taxable transactions has fallen from about HK$40 billion a month to HK$20 ...

  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    HKMA chief's concerns sound like a massive understatement

    Posted Sep 09th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... monetary base has shrunk by almost HK$180 billion, and residential property prices have slipped by some 2.5 per cent from their March high. Happily, the outlook is not entirely grim. Even ... vulnerable to any reversal in capital flows prompted by changes in US monetary policy. Most exposed are local property prices, which have doubled with the doubling of the city's monetary base ...

  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Hopes for affordable homes in Hong Kong sure to be dashed

    Posted Apr 23rd 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... 2.75 per cent to 3 per cent. You can already see the impact in the market. The number of residential property transactions plunged in March, falling 60 per cent compared with the same month ... Tom Holland A recent pause in the relentless upward march of property prices will be short-lived without major reforms to land policy and the US dollar peg Hopes for affordable homes in HK ...

  7. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Early signs suggest new stamp duties haven't reined in prices

    Posted Jan 10th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... haven't reined in prices At the end of October, the Hong Kong government slapped a punitive 15 per cent stamp duty on all non-resident and corporate buyers of residential properties in an attempt ... time as tax rates on quick sales were jacked up, is having an appreciable effect. We can see that simply by looking at transaction volumes in the residential market. In November, immediately ...

  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Excluding mainlanders won't allay main property grievance

    Posted Oct 29th 2012, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... 15 per cent stamp duty on top of the standard rate; 20 per cent if he or she sells within six months. Secondly, all individual buyers of residential properties who are not Hong Kong permanent ... property grievance On Friday evening Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah announced two new punitive property tax measures aimed at "maintaining a healthy, stable property market". ...

  9. Comment - Insight & Opinion - MONITOR

    A property slump will affect the whole of Hong Kong's economy

    Posted Jul 18th 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... other sectors of Hong Kong's domestic economy. First of all, a property bear market will erode consumer demand. With residential mortgage debt currently standing at 46 per cent of Hong ... Tom Holland A property slump will affect the whole of HK's economy Last week Monitor argued that the gradual tapering of quantitative easing and the eventual increase in American ...

  10. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    When the slump finally comes, home prices could fall by half

    Posted Jan 21st 2013, 12:00am by Tom Holland

    ... residential mortgages and overall property loans are slightly below their 10-year average relative to total Hong Kong dollar loans, and both are falling as a proportion of overall bank lending. ... Tom Holland Putting a fair value on housing is no easy task but there are some worrying property numbers in terms of average real interest rates When the slump finally comes, home prices ...




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