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  • October 23, 2014
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  1. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    We don't need a Future Fund. The future is already upon us

    Posted Mar 05th 2014, 01:34am by Tom Holland

    ... The future is already upon us The government's warnings that Hong Kong is heading for a fiscal crisis of Greek proportions are ludicrous. As Monitor pointed out yesterday, new projections ... the government could meet its future spending needs from existing resources. They do, however, come up with one new recommendation that is not so much novel as utterly bizarre. Hong Kong, they say, ...

  2. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    After nine years, it's time to leave the stage

    Posted Mar 06th 2014, 12:25am by Tom Holland

    ... public finances are stronger than ever. Yet officials continue to warn about the emergence of a structural deficit and to call for new taxes to raise even more revenue. Nine years ago Hongkongers ...

  3. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Fiscal report based on lunatic projection of capital spending

    Posted Mar 04th 2014, 05:09am by Tom Holland

    ... billion in 2014 to an eye-popping HK$515 billion in 2041. To put that sum into perspective, it is enough to build four new runways for Hong Kong airport each year. The working group explains ...

  4. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Tsang's vision of Hong Kong's future is severely out of focus

    Posted Feb 27th 2014, 01:23am by Tom Holland

    ... the workforce in the late 1970s and early 1980s are nearing retirement, and our working age population is set to decline over the coming years. That means we no longer have such a burning need for new ... of government spending, outweighing either education, health or welfare; the three areas of expenditure Tsang says he is so concerned about. Hong Kong needs some new infrastructure spending of course. ...

  5. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    It's not heresy to expect grand projects to pay for themselves

    Posted Feb 28th 2014, 01:01am by Tom Holland

    ... of the government's stubborn insistence on segregating the 20 per cent of its total revenues derived from land premium payments and spending them only on new infrastructure projects, which Hong Kong will need ... the problem by applying the new rules only to future land sales and lease modifications, the income stream generated would be far too small to fill its revenue hole. True enough; but the government ...

  6. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    Nothing new in Beijing's latest 'clampdown' on shadow loans

    Posted Jan 08th 2014, 03:33am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland Instead of more edicts, some enforcement of the rules would help, even though the root problem is the mainland's artificially low interest rates Nothing new ... at tightening the regulation of China's ballooning market in murky off-balance-sheet loans. The document contained few details, but according to news reports the new measures made it more difficult ...

  7. Business - Banking & Finance - MONITOR

    The encouraging signs behind China's record funding figures

    Posted Feb 17th 2014, 04:47am by Tom Holland

    ... shadow market- and both optimists and pessimists can find evidence to support their views. Altogether, as the first chart shows, new funding measured by Beijing's "total social ... is overinvested and that returns on capital are falling dangerously, then you will worry that last month's surge in new credit heightens the chances of a nasty financial crisis further down the road. ...

  8. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    A nice idea Mr Yam, but it will be a long time before it can fly

    Posted Feb 19th 2014, 01:27am by Tom Holland

    ... capital controls, it is obliged to rely on reserve requirements to manage domestic monetary conditions. And as even Yam concedes in his new paper, China's financial system is too fragile ...

  9. Business - Comment - MONITOR

    New 'two-child' rules won't trigger China baby boom

    Posted Dec 11th 2013, 04:55am by Tom Holland

    ... Tom Holland With disposable incomes just above the running costs of a middle-class urban infant, eligible couples will be deterred from enlarging families New 'two-child' rules ... Demographics, calculates that if the new rules are fully implemented from next year, about two million couples will qualify to have a second child next year. On top of that, an additional four million ...

  10. Business - Banking & Finance - MONITOR

    Four reasons the yuan will struggle to gain acceptance

    Posted Feb 06th 2014, 04:24am by Tom Holland

    ... and the new currency quickly gained ground in both trade settlement and reserve portfolios. Again the advance petered out. Although the euro achieved acceptance around Europe's periphery, ... Germany and France to breach the deficit limits imposed by the Growth and Stability Pact that was supposed to underpin the new currency's credibility. Today, as much of the continent grapples ...




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