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Bloomberg

 Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
by Graham Allison
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
3.5 stars
Before settling in for pleasurable summer books, read Graham Allison’s Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? A warning: it’s going to scare the heck out of you.

It starts with the Athenian historian’s chronicle of the conflict between Sparta and Athens in the fifth century BC as a way to tackle the larger question of whether war can be averted when an aggressive rising nation threatens a dominant power. Allison, a renowned Harvard University scholar and national security expert, studied 16 such cases during the past 500 years; in 12 there was war.
For three-quarters of a century, the US has been the dominant world power. China is now challenging that hegemony economically, politically and militarily. Both countries, with vastly different political systems, histories and values, believe in their own exceptionalism.
Who caused the opium war? British merchants of Canton, argues new book by Singapore academic
The two nations, Allison argues, are “currently on a collision course for war”, which he says can be averted only if both demonstrate skill and “take difficult and painful actions to avert it”. 
Allison has been sweeping in and out of government, serving five Republican and Democratic administrations from Washington and his perch at Harvard. He’s a first-class academic with the instincts of a first-rate politician. He has an impressive sweep of historical and geopolitical and military knowledge. Unlike some academics, he writes interestingly.

Allison analyses why so many rising powers ended up in wars with established ones, and why some didn’t. The best contemporary examples are the German rise that led to the first world war, contrasted with the confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union, which was kept from escalating into hot war for more than four decades.
In the early part of the 20th century, the UK was threatened by an emerging Germany – which had been unified decades before – and which was blowing past Britain economically and moving upon its naval dominance. The political leaders in the UK, Allison writes, were beset by anxieties and Germany emboldened by ambition. Mutual mistrust, an arms race and war followed.

After the second world war, facing the menacing challenge from the Soviet Union, the US fashioned the policy of containment, starting with the extraordinary Marshall Plan to rebuild war-ravaged allies and adversaries. With smart diplomats and presidents, from John F. Kennedy’s handling of the Cuban missile crisis through Ronald Reagan’s engagement with Mikhail Gorbachev, war was averted until the Soviet Union collapsed.
The rise of China offers a classic Thucydides trap. In 1980, China’s economy was only a tenth the size of the US economy. By 2040, Allison reckons it could be three times larger. China considers itself the most important power in Asia, irrespective of US commitments and alliances with allies in the region.

With US President Donald Trump presiding over a White House hostile to international institutions, Chinese President Xi Jinping has at least a claim on the title of premier global leader.
Allison depicts plausible scenarios of how conflicts between these two superpowers could break out: disputes over Taiwan or the South China Sea, or an accidental provocation by a third party – it was the assassination of an Austrian archduke by a Serbian terrorist that triggered the first world war – or, less likely, a quarrel related to economic competition.
The most dangerous threat lurks in the Korean peninsula, where North Korea has nuclear warheads and is trying to develop the missile technology to hit San Francisco. What happens if the Pyongyang regime collapses and its strongman, Kim Jong-un, is eliminated? 
In March, Xi explained the nuances of the Korean situation to Trump, whose White House had warned that “if China is not going to solve North Korea, we will”.
James Joyce-like novel about Japanese genocide of Taiwan tribes is a tough read, but worth the effort
If that’s a military threat, consider this: an assault on North Korea would be answered by missile attacks against nearby Seoul that could kill as many as a million people. Imagine that followed by an invasion of the north by the US and South Korea to prevent more carnage. Would China sit still for a unified Korean peninsula allied with the US? The answer was no in 1950, to General Douglas MacArthur’s shock, when it was much less powerful, confident and ambitious.
Allison isn’t a pessimist. He argues that with skilful statecraft and political sensitivity these two superpowers can avoid war.
Xi is a ruthless autocrat, but a smart one with a sense of history and China’s customary patience. 
In the US, by contrast, the current commander-in-chief shows little interest in history and is claimed to be irrational, insecure and impulsive.
That’s scary.


Book review: Destined for War – Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? should scare you

Could war between the US and China be kicked off by a third party such as North Korea, pictured here testing a new type of cruise missile? Allison argues it’s a plausible scenario. Photo: AP

Destined for War cover

(FILES) This file photo taken on February 14, 2017 shows US President Donald Trump during a meeting with teachers, school administrators and parents in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC. President Donald Trump's administration is poised to announce the United States' withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, US media reported on May 31, 2017. According to the Axios website, the first to break the news citing two sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Trump has reached a decision to pull out of the landmark deal on cutting global carbon emissions to curb global warming.Several US media including CNN, CBS, ABC and Politico also reported that the White House was expected to announce a withdrawal from the 2015 accord once details of the process have been worked out. / AFP PHOTO / SAUL LOEB

Thucydides. No credit

FILE - In this undated photo released by Xinhua News Agency, a Chinese H-6K bomber patrols the islands and reefs in the South China Sea. China's state broadcaster showed on Sunday, May 7, 2017, navy fighter bombers taking part in exercises over the South China Sea, including one involving the detection and expulsion of foreign military surveillance aircraft such as those deployed regularly in the area by the U.S. and others. The video shown on CCTV's military channel shows a squadron of two-seater Xian JH-7 Flying Leopards flying in formation and dropping bombs on targets in the ocean below. (Liu Rui/Xinhua via AP, File)

Who caused the opium war? British merchants of Canton, argues new book by Singapore academic

A faction of merchants known as the ‘Warlike party’, not colonialist British policy or Qing dynasty intransigence, cause conflict that forced emperor to cede Hong Kong and open doors wider to trade, Song-Chuan Chen writes

Kangxi emperor

Merchants book cover

Qianlong emperor

A 19th century painting of Canton harbour and factories. A faction of British merchants there orchestrated the first opium war, a new book argues.

James Joyce-like novel about Japanese genocide of Taiwan tribes is a tough read,  but worth the effort

Award-winning Remains of Life, written without chapters or paragraphs, is a technically daunting account of a terrible event from Taiwan’s occupation that has taken 18 years to publish in English, and it’s not hard to see why

***ONE TIME USE ONLY*** Ulysses by James Joyce

FFM47C Portrait of Mona Rudao (1882?1930) He was chief of the Seediq tribe of native Taiwanese. He was leader of Wushe incident (1930).. Image shot 1930. Exact date unknown. [04JUNE2017 POST MAGAZINE]

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Graham Allison studied 16 cases in the last 500 years where an aggressive rising nation threatened a dominant power; in 12 there was war. Are the US and China on a collision course or can conflict be avoided?


An assessment or critique of a service, product or creative endeavour.  Film reviews, restaurant reviews, reviews of art exhibitions. (Eg. Crazy Rich Asians: an important film, yes, but a good one?)


Review

Review | Book review: Destined for War – Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? should scare you

Graham Allison studied 16 cases in the last 500 years where an aggressive rising nation threatened a dominant power; in 12 there was war. Are the US and China on a collision course or can conflict be avoided?