Book review: A Sense of the Enemy, by Zachary Shore
More than 2,000 years ago, Chinese martial philosopher Sun Tzu - generally recognised as author of military treatise The Art of War - advised generals to "know thy enemy".
by Zachary Shore
Oxford University Press
3.5 stars
More than 2,000 years ago, Chinese martial philosopher Sun Tzu - generally recognised as author of military treatise - advised generals to "know thy enemy". However, "the question has always been how to do it. Though millennia have passed, we are still searching for the answer," historian Zachary Shore writes in .
The secret is to parse supposedly revelatory "pattern break" deviations from routine, according to Shore. "Pattern breaks are teachable moments. They are the times when one side in a conflict reveals what it values most, hinting strongly at what it plans to do."
He addresses how the ruptures play out in the antics of some of history's top "strategic empaths". The line-up includes everyone from shadowy Vietnamese Marxist manipulator Le Duan to Indian statesman Mahatma Gandhi, US president Franklin Delano Roosevelt and German genius Gustav Stresemann, who rose from nowhere to become chancellor. And in an odd mythical add-on, a classic Chinese novel steeped in wisdom, , makes the cut.
At the heart of the post-Han dynasty saga based on third-century scholarship stands Cun (sic) Ming (or Kong Ming, born Zhuge Liang, alias Sleeping Dragon). Through the cautious application of superior force, he has achieved legendary status, but his victorious run looks set to end when he is left defending a city with 2,500 men. His enemy, Marshall Sima Yi, is closing in, leading a 150,000- strong force.
Unfazed, Zhuge tells his troops to dress in civilian garb and peacefully sweep the streets at the city gates. He then climbs onto the highest building's roof, armed only with his lute, and plays away. Baffled, Sima Yi deduces his enemy's outward lack of preparation must mean a trap, so he beats a retreat.
Shore's point is that Sima Yi failed because he lacked the wit to treat the pattern break as a teachable moment. The author's tip that we need to avoid falling prey to the "continuity heuristic" makes sense but seems hard to implement. "Studies consistently show how poor we are at rational decision making, particularly when those choices involve our expectations of the future," he writes.
Shore also refers to psychologist Philip Tetlock who is widely cited for revealing that the more renowned the expert, the more likely his predictions will be false.
Shore deserves credit for documenting how iffy the field of prediction is. Too bad if you are left wondering quite how to comply with Sun Tzu's advice on outwitting the enemy. Anyone for lute lessons?
