Shigeru Ishiba set to decline cabinet post and may challenge Shinzo Abe
The LDP's secretary general is viewed as a potential challenger to Shinzo Abe for the leadership who could prove to be more palatable to China
Shigeru Ishiba, the secretary general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, is expected to turn down a cabinet position in a reshuffle scheduled for September 3, with the political grapevine suggesting that he is planning to challenge Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for the leadership.
Ishiba is reportedly unhappy that Abe wants him removed from his party post, effectively the No 2 in Japanese politics, and will turn down the offer of the new position of minister in charge of national security. Ishiba is in sharp disagreement with Abe on defence and security policies, and a cabinet position would compel him to toe the line.
Abe also appears to have lost some faith in his previously close ally, with questions raised about his management ability after the poor handling of local elections in Okinawa and Fukushima.
[Taking the post] could become a factor inhibiting the promotion of his own ideas
Ishiba has an interest in defence issues and has long favoured the creation of a basic law on security that would spell out unequivocally Japan's right to exercise collective self-defence. Abe has been more mindful of opposition to such a dramatic move and has stated his government will simply reinterpret the constitution to permit self-defence within limits.
"The prime minister and Mr Ishiba have fundamentally incompatible views on security legislation," a lawmaker close to Ishiba said. If Ishiba took up Abe's offer, it "could become a factor inhibiting the promotion of his own ideas" in the future, Kenji Kosaka said last week.
Jun Okumura, a visiting scholar at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, said there was "little doubt that if [Ishiba] had been asked to stay on as secretary general of the party, then he would not be contemplating a challenge to the prime minister". The party leadership traditionally carries with it the prime ministership.
The prime minister has been riding high in opinion polls since returning to the post in December 2012. The debate over collective self-defence and reinterpreting the constitution has cost him some goodwill, however, and his support rate fell below 50 per cent for the first time last month.