Seeking alliances to counter China high on Abe's agenda during five-nation Asia tour
Access to natural resources will be high on his agenda during the August visits to five nations, but so is countering China's reach, analysts say
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will embark on a five-nation tour of Central Asia in August to shore up trade relations where China is the dominant player.
Analysts in Japan agree that gaining better access to natural resources is an important task for Japan, but they believe Abe will be expending just as much effort in building alliances in an effort to counter China, which surpassed Russia as Central Asia's biggest trading partner in 2009.
Abe has decided that it is time for him to . . . try to win them over
The trip is scheduled to take in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, government sources told the newspaper, and there is a possibility that Abe will meet Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, who is expected to be in the region during the same time to attend the World Judo Championships.
The trip will be the first to the region by a Japanese leader since Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited in August 2006.
Government officials indicated that Abe plans to express his determination to continue assisting in development of the five republics through private-sector investment and trade in natural resources, including rare earth minerals, precious metals and petroleum products.
But Yoichi Shimada, a professor of international relations at Fukui Prefectural University, is confident that the prime minister has an ulterior motive.
"Ever since he came to power in December 2012, Abe has been travelling around the world to improve Japan's relations with other countries," Shimada said.
"One of the most important objectives of those trips - and of this upcoming visit - has been to find ways to contain China. He has never said so openly, but countering China has been a key motivation behind all of his international trips."
China's trade with Central Asia soared from US$700 million in 1998 to US$25 billion in 2008, which nearly doubled to US$49 billion in 2013.
In September 2013, President Xi Jinping spoke about establishing a Silk Road Economic Belt that would aim to open a strategic thoroughfare connecting Central Asia with the rest of the continent.
The Central Asian republics are geographically close to the western provinces of China, and Beijing "is trying to entice them into its orbit", Shimada said.
"Aware of this tactic, Abe has decided that it is time for him to go there and to try to win them over to Japan's position," he added.
The Japanese prime minister has already achieved a degree of success with this tactic, with visits to Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines eliciting expressions of support for the shared goal of countering China's moves to assert sovereignty over disputed shoals and reefs in the South China Sea.
The timing of Abe's visit is also significant given moves by China to establish the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the professor suggested. With both Japan and the US opting not to become founder members of the planned bank - out of concern that Beijing intends to exercise control over its activities - Japanese companies are concerned that they are likely to be excluded from infrastructure development projects in Asia that the AIIB will be funding.
Japan's government is attempting to give its companies a head start. "It is likely that Abe will promise to provide official development assistance for a number of projects in these republics, with the understanding that Japanese companies will be involved in the work," Shimada said.
