Academics warn China will dominate region without US

China will dominate the western Pacific and eastern Asia in just 20 years if Washington draws down its presence in the region, according to a study that was carried out for Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The report, which was released immediately before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe departed on a state visit to Washington, suggests that Japan should emphasise the importance of the US retaining a significant Asia-Pacific capability, both to the US government and other allied nations in the region.

The report was compiled over a period of two years by seven academics led by Yuichi Hosoya, a professor of international politics at Keio University and an adviser to the prime minister.

The academics provided positive and negative conclusions for Japan's relationships with the US, China, South Korea and North Korea in 20 years' time, the first time a study for the ministry has looked that far into the future.

A best-case scenario for China will see Beijing continuing to expand its influence while at the same time maintaining cooperation with the international order. At the other end of the scale, the failure of domestic reforms and other external factors could have a serious destabilising affect on the country, which could spread.

North Korea's optimal future will see the regime there scrapping its nuclear programmes, carrying out reforms with the assistance of the international community and opening up to other nations.

A worst case-scenario, the analysts conclude, will see Pyongyang carrying out repeated nuclear and missile launch tests, with domestic tensions rising against Kim Jong-un's regime.