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Analysis | Analysts cast doubt on North Korea's ICBM re-entry capability

An intercontinental ballistic missile launched late last week by North Korea appears to have disintegrated before splashing down

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Friday’s launch of a Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile. Photo: AP
Associated Press
North Korea after decades of effort has a missile potentially capable of reaching the continental United States, but analysts say Pyongyang has yet to show the ICBM can inflict serious damage once it gets there.

US and South Korean experts on Tuesday said Japanese video footage capturing the Hwasong-14’s re-entry vehicle shortly before it crashed into the sea suggests it failed to survive the extreme heat and pressure after re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere following its launch from northern North Korea on Friday.

But the apparent failure likely means the North will conduct more flight tests of the Hwasong-14 missile to ensure the warhead could survive the re-entry from space and hit its intended target, the analyst said.

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The Hwasong-14 ICBM, which was first tested on July 4, follows decades of effort by North Korea to obtain a nuclear deterrent against the United States. Analysis of the flight data from Hwasong-14’s second test has suggested that more of the US mainland, including Los Angeles and Chicago, is now in range of Pyongyang’s weapons.
Japanese video footage capturing the Hwasong-14’s re-entry vehicle shortly before it crashed into the sea suggests it failed to survive the extreme heat and pressure after re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere. Photo: NHK
Japanese video footage capturing the Hwasong-14’s re-entry vehicle shortly before it crashed into the sea suggests it failed to survive the extreme heat and pressure after re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere. Photo: NHK
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However, whether North Korea can arm the missile with a nuclear warhead and protect it throughout the flight are different questions entirely.

After analysing video from a rooftop camera operated by Japan’s NHK television on the northern island of Hokkaido, US missile expert Michael Elleman concluded that Hwasong-14’s re-entry vehicle “disintegrated” before it landed at sea.

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