Who would succeed Japanese PM Shinzo Abe if he stepped aside due to health concerns?
- Abe has been Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, partly because of the lack of dissent in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party
- He plans to hold a news conference on Friday, his first extended appearance since June
One of the reasons Abe has endured to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister has been the lack of open dissent in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Some potential candidates may be holding fire while he’s in office, but a large degree of continuity is likely in managing the world’s third-largest economy.
“There is little choice but to continue with aggressive fiscal policy and monetary easing giving the state of the economy, especially after the pandemic,” said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “If a new leader wants to upend economic policies, that would cause yen gains and stock falls. No one wants that.”
Shigeru Ishiba, 63, former defence minister
No national election need be held until 2021, so a new LDP leader would succeed Abe as premier. Polls show Ishiba is the voters’ top choice to take over. He has backed economic policies seen as more populist than Abe’s and said in an interview in April that too much wealth was accumulating in the hands of stockholders and company owners. He has also cast doubt on the sustainability of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.
Taro Kono, 57, defence minister
Current Defence Minister Kono is a fluent English speaker and graduate of Georgetown University. He expressed interest in an interview with the Nikkei newspaper earlier this month in working closely with the so-called Five Eyes intelligence alliance, which brings together Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US. That could suggest he is willing to step up joint pressure on China.
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Fumio Kishida, 63, former foreign minister
Abe has touted Kishida as a potential leader, appointing him as foreign minister and then to a senior party post. But the mild-mannered former banker has so far failed to build a public profile.
Seen as more dovish than Abe, Kishida sealed an ill-fated deal with South Korea in 2015 that was meant to end a dispute over women trafficked in brothels run by Japan’s military during World War II. But that accord eventually ended in rancour.
In an interview with broadcaster TV Tokyo on Monday, Kishida said he expected interest rates to remain low, given the state of the economy. He called for plentiful spending to combat the economic crisis, but urged caution on the idea of cutting the sales tax. Kishida also mentioned the need to return to fiscal discipline later.
Yoshihide Suga, 71, chief cabinet secretary
Although Suga hasn’t laid out an alternative policy platform, he has pushed particular issues, including controversial government subsidies for domestic travel during the virus pandemic.
Taro Aso, 79, finance minister
Aso, like Suga, is part of Abe’s inner circle and is Japan’s long-serving finance minister and deputy prime minister. Given his age, he’s unlikely to serve as premier for more than a caretaker period. He served an unsuccessful year in the post in 2008-2009, at the end of which the Democratic Party scored a landslide election victory over the LDP.
