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Rescuers search the rubble in Bhaktapur, near Kathmandu, in the aftermath of the 7.8-magnitude disaster. Photos: AP, AFP, Reuters, Xinhua

Experts warned Nepal earthquake would come - but didn't know when

Experts have known for years that Nepal was vulnerable to a catastrophic earthquake - they just didn't know it would happen so soon

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WASHPOST

A massive block of the earth's crust, roughly 120km long and 60km wide, lurched 3m south in 30 seconds. Riding atop this block of the planet was the capital of Nepal - Kathmandu - and millions of Nepalese.

That's the description of Saturday's earthquake from University of Colorado geologist Roger Bilham, a world-renowned expert on Himalayan earthquakes.

The 7.8-magnitude upheaval that flattened historic buildings in Kathmandu and killed more than 2,300 people is the latest release of built-up strain from the collision of two tectonic plates.

The Indian plate is inexorably sliding - in halting, ground-shaking fashion - northward, beneath the much larger Eurasian plate. The process has created the lofty Tibetan plateau and pushed up mountains that reach more than 9,100 metres above sea level.

Just a week ago, about 50 earthquake and social scientists from around the world went to Kathmandu to figure out how to help the poor, congested, overdeveloped, shoddily built area to prepare better for 'the big one' - a repeat of the 1934 quake that levelled the city.

They knew they were racing the clock, but didn't know when it would strike.

"It was sort of a nightmare waiting to happen," said seismologist James Jackson, head of the earth sciences department at the University of Cambridge in England.

"Physically and geologically, what happened is exactly what we thought would happen."

He just didn't expect it to happen so soon.

"I was walking through that very area where that earthquake was and I thought at the very time that the area was heading for trouble," Jackson added.

The Himalaya front can produce earthquakes much more powerful than Saturday's disaster. But the latest was relatively shallow, which intensified the surface shaking, and its epicentre was far closer to Kathmandu than its legendary predecessor.

"The earthquake ruptured under the city, very close to the city, so this is as bad as our worst-case scenario, probably," Bilham explained.

News of the massive quake hit experts hard. Theirs can be a frustrating profession, because they know there are natural disasters about to happen somewhere - but they can't predict precisely where and when.

This one, however, had been long anticipated.

For years now, seismic experts have kept a list of the world's most vulnerable cities. Kathmandu has always been high on that list.

Geology, urbanisation, architecture and building codes have increased the vulnerability of the Nepalese, experts say, and the only major unknown has been the timing of the disaster.

"We knew it was going to happen. We saw it in '34," said Susan Hough, of the US Geological Survey. "The earthquakes we expect to happen do happen."

In recent years, scientists, engineers and government officials have worked on retrofitting schools and hospitals to make them sturdier in the event of an earthquake.

But at the same time, civil unrest has pushed more people into urban areas, where they inhabit newly constructed, unreinforced-masonry buildings that in many cases are not designed to withstand quakes.

"It was clearly a disaster in the making that was getting worse faster than anyone was able to make it better," Hough said.

"You're up against a Himalayan-scale problem with third-world resources."

Bilham agreed: "The message has not been ignored, it's just that the scope of the reconstruction … is so enormous."

Poverty and pollution make the problem worse, Jackson added: "If you live in the Kathmandu Valley you have other priorities … but it doesn't mean that the earthquakes go away."

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Disaster hidden in plain sight
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