Plenum set to decide Zhou Yongkang's fate but don't expect details

As the Communist Party elite converge on Beijing tomorrow to discuss rule of law, few specifics are likely to emerge of the case of former law and order chief Zhou Yongkang.

Analysts say details of how Zhou violated the law will probably not be discussed at the fourth plenum of the Central Committee. Instead, the party will stick to pre-rehearsed political rhetoric, even if Zhou is publicly ousted from the party.

"According to the procedures set by the party, the results of investigations of cadres as senior as Zhou should be discussed at this level of meetings," said Zhang Lifan, a historian and political commentator in Beijing.

Zhou is the first member of the party's top-level Politburo Standing Committee to be detained and investigated for corruption, and there is general speculation that the leadership will make an example of him to show its determination to implement the rule of law.

"This case is far too serious, too important, to be handled in accordance with any strict disciplinary code," said Steve Tsang, professor of contemporary Chinese studies at the University of Nottingham in England. "Anything discussed at the meeting will be the result of agreements and compromises reached beforehand at the very top level."

Public records show that investigation reports into various fired senior party officials have been discussed at party plenums. In 1994, the party's central committee members passed the Central Committee for Discipline Inspection's investigation report on former Beijing party boss Chen Xitong. A year later, Chen was expelled from the party after the fifth plenum.