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Wang Xiangwei
SCMP Columnist
China Briefing
by Wang Xiangwei
China Briefing
by Wang Xiangwei

Xi Jinping's priorities likely to remain firm in 2015

The president will continue to leave his mark on the global stage in 2015, reining in corruption and instigating economic reform

There is little doubt that 2014 will be remembered as one of the most eventful years in China's history.

President Xi Jinping has won respect and built up his clout at home and abroad faster than any other Chinese leader in decades. His sweeping anti-corruption campaign shows no sign of abating as it targets both high-ranking "tigers" and lower-ranking "flies". He has become the most travelled Chinese leader, telling the world that the "sleeping lion" has awakened and signalling China's intention to push for a new world order.

Even as the mainland economy enters a new phase of slower growth, many overseas economists say China is on track to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the year ends.

All these have, of course, raised expectations and concerns about where China, particularly its economy, is headed in the new year.

While crystal ball gazing is a risky business, there are good reasons to predict where Xi's priorities will lie in 2015.

The first and foremost is that Xi will not relent in his unprecedented anti-graft campaign. In the two years since he came to power, in November 2012, his pursuit of the corrupt has ensnared tens of thousands of officials, including Zhou Yongkang , former chief of the mainland's massive security apparatus, and Xu Caihou , the former second-in-charge of the People's Liberation Army.

When the drive first started, cynics believed it was a mere pretext by Xi to consolidate power. Other analysts and investors feared the anti-graft drive would hurt the business environment as officials who were denied access to bribes dragged their feet to endorse policies or business deals.

If anything, Xi seems willing to take bigger risks to curb graft and shore up the legitimacy of the Communist Party.

After completing investigations into Zhou, a former Politburo Standing Committee member and the highest-ranking official to be felled by corruption allegations, the anti-graft investigators are now believed to be closing in on Ling Jihua , the chief of staff for former president Hu Jintao , and a number of other incumbent or retired senior officials.

Second, Xi is expected to continue the anti-graft drive to tighten control of the PLA and restructure the armed forces that have demonstrated to be rotten to the core.

Under tight secrecy and a weak leadership, particularly under the 10-year reign of Hu, the PLA degenerated into a playground of rampant corruption, extravagance and pleasure where it become an open secret that officers could bribe their way to promotion.

After bringing down Xu, the anti-graft investigators are believed to have another former top general in their sights, who along with Xu was in charge of the PLA for 10 years until 2012.

Last week, a credible list circulated online showing that Xi has reshuffled more than 40 generals, including the commander and political commissar of the armed police. Analysts expect more reshuffles in 2015 as Xi tries to make a clean sweep of Xu's loyal supporters.

Xi's third priority is likely to be a push for economic restructuring. One of his first moves after coming to power was to Shenzhen, China's first special economic zone, where he pledged to push for greater economic reforms and opening up in the footsteps of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping .

Maintaining stable economic growth will probably be another priority but will occupy less of Xi's time compared with the other three.

Xi stressed this year that slower growth was normal, and told Apec leaders last month that China's economic risks were manageable. That could mean that China was expected to set a lower growth rate of 7 per cent for next year and even allow the economy to fall below that benchmark without resorting to a stimulus package.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Xi's priorities likely to stay firm in 2015
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