New | Stalemate in the South China Sea
The best the two powers can do is to improve communication between their militaries, as a consensus is too much to ask for, analysts say
China and the United States are locked in a stalemate over Beijing's extensive land reclamation in the South China Sea, with experts pessimistic that the two powers can resolve their differences in the near future.
The best the countries could do was to strengthen communication between their militaries, the analysts said, with the tensions over the contested waters likely to overshadow upcoming dialogues.
Tensions have flared again in recent days, following a CNN report last week on China's warnings against a US spy plane's flight over the South China Sea, as well as Beijing's release on Tuesday of a white paper that unveiled plans to expand its naval power and counter US surveillance.
US Defence Secretary Ash Carter on Thursday defended America's right to fly over China's artificial islands. "There should be no mistake in this, the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows," he said.
But Carter did little to clarify what the US was willing to do - diplomatically or militarily - to make China stop construction of the islands.
Foreign ministry spokesman Hua Chunying responded by saying the US should "think twice before taking any action". She accused the US of having double standards and turning a blind eye to the "illegal constructions" of other Asian countries on the islands.
"Neither side will make substantial compromises over these security issues," Renmin University Sino-US expert Shi Yinhong said. "The countries are stuck in a stalemate."
Neither side would budge on their core interests - territorial claims for China and freedom of navigation for the US, Shi said.
China, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines lay claim to all or parts of the resource-rich South China Sea, which spans 3.5 million sq km. The US wants the sea kept open to shipping and flights, but Beijing says Washington wants to keep a presence there to contain Chinese maritime expansion.
"There is a clear discord and a consensus would be too much to ask for," Peking University professor Jie Dalei said.
The sides had different interpretations of international laws, in particular, whether a country should enjoy the same territorial rights on artificial islands as on natural ones, Jie said.
Dr Li Mingjiang, at Nanyang Technological University's S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the two powers were far from resolving their differences, but it was unlikely the tensions would trigger a military stand-off.
Both needed to voice their discontent, but neither wanted tensions to escalate, Li said.
One senior US official said there were discussions about conducting more military flights and patrols in the South China Sea near the projects.
"Even so, they won't stay long or close enough to trigger a naval stand-off," Li said.
The analysts said that for now, China and the US could focus only on improving communication between their militaries.
This was one of the major achievements from the last meeting between President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Barack Obama in November. They agreed that both militaries would inform each other before any major operation. They also oversaw the setting up of rules of behaviour for accidental encounters at sea to avoid clashes.
Shi said Xi and Obama's agreements came after Chinese and American military aircraft and vessels came dangerously close to open conflict near China late last year.
"The priority now is to study how to improve the existing mechanisms to avoid accidental military clashes amid the ongoing disputes," Shi said.
Both powers were considering how to expand their rules of behaviour to cover accidental encounters in the air, Li said.
Jie said the next round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue might touch on the prevention of military clashes.
The dialogue will be held late next month and attended by State Councillor Yang Jiechi and US Secretary of State John Kerry.
"That's why delegates from both militaries were invited," Jie said. "But it's hard to tell whether and to what extent they will be able to see any development."
The South China Sea disputes were also likely to remain on the agenda for Xi's state visit to the US in September, said Peking University's Professor Niu Jun.
But both sides were more likely to focus on finalising investment deals, particularly a bilateral investment treaty, he said.
Watch: US Defence Secretary Ash Carter speak in Hawaii