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China's Liaoning aircraft carrier. China will have the world’s second-largest naval fleet by 2030 after the United States based on tonnage, according to Kanwa Defence Review. Photo: Xinhua

PLA Navy in future will have world-class ships, but not the expertise to operate them, military observers say

Reliance on retired officers exposes serious shortfalls in staff training and promotions

The  PLA’s recall of retired naval officers for recent maritime drills has exposed a deep shortage of talent in the ranks due to the military’s defective training and succession system, defence observers say.

More problems would come to light if nothing was done to rectify the outdated and bureaucratic methods of training and promoting staff as the People’s Liberation Army Navy expanded rapidly with more advanced warships and armaments, the experts warned.

China will have the world’s second-largest naval fleet by 2030 after the United States based on the aggregate tonnage of its modern surface warships, according to the Chinese-language Kanwa Defence Review.  

The Canada-based magazine said China would have at least 12 advanced Type 052D missile destroyers and 22 multirole 054A frigates by next year, followed by other state-of-the-art vessels including two more home-built aircraft carriers, bringing the total tonnage to at least 500,000 tonnes.  

A retired PLA senior colonel, who had spent much time in naval research but did not wish to be named, said many of China’s advanced vessels like the 052D destroyers were being sent to the South China Sea, where  Beijing has territory disputes with its Southeast Asian neighbours.

In May, Beijing signalled in a defence ministry white paper a strategic shift to a more assertive military, transforming its navy from an “offshore defence” power to one committed to “open-seas protection”.

However, China’s naval academies could not meet the training requirements of a blue-water navy, and the US and other Western countries were reluctant to hold officer exchanges with their Chinese counterparts, Macau-based military observer Antony Wong Dong said.

Washington is more willing to provide naval training to other developing countries in Asia 
Antony Wong Dong, military observer

“For historical reasons and the perceived threat of China, Washington is more willing to provide naval training to other developing countries in Asia such as India and Vietnam, and even share technology with them, in a bid to balance a rising China,” Wong said. “That’s why China must try all means to cultivate its own naval talent, which will take more time than other countries.”

Last month, state broadcaster China Central Television reported that the South Sea Fleet had called up more than 120 reserve officers from Sichuan, Chongqing, Hunan and Guangdong to take part in four days of anti-piracy and ocean rescue drills. The report said that many of the officers were outstanding retired technicians who had served with the navy for more than a decade.

The report initially raised speculation in domestic and overseas media that China was preparing for a war with its neighbours over South China Sea territorial disputes after Washington urged Beijing to halt its land reclamation projects and stop the placing of mobile artillery on its reclaimed islands.

The Chinese defence ministry, however, dismissed the speculation as “groundless rumours”, saying that that the reserves trained regularly with regular forces to beef up the navy’s combat capability.

But the retired colonel said the PLA had shut the door to promotion for many senior technicians who had reached the age of 30 but had not been made company commanders.

“Corruption is a key reason that so much real talent has been underappreciated,” the naval veteran said, adding that the fighting capacity of PLA crews was yet to match the hardware build-up.

“The Chinese navy will need to spend at least a decade to catch up with the Japanese Maritime Self-defence Force. That’s why China still dares not go to war with Japan over disputes in the East China Sea, and not at all with the US in the South China Sea.”

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: PLA Navy 'will have ships, but not the crews'
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