The radical plan to turn China’s People’s Liberation Army into a modern fighting force
As infantrymen polish their buckles and honour guards practice their marches one final time, the stage is set for Thursday’s parade in Beijing to mark the end of the second world war.
Global leaders can expect a display of awe-inspiring power from the world’s largest army, which will be represented by 12,000 Chinese troops in 50 formations, nearly 200 aircraft, seven types of missiles and a dazzling array of hardware never before shown publicly.
Yet with all eyes on the pomp in Tiananmen Square, behind the scenes, China’s military is in flux. Several plans for reform have been suggested, but one obtained by the South China Morning Post from reform-minded officers envisages the most radical restructuring of the forces ever. The plans, aimed at turning the People’s Liberation Army into a modern fighting force fit for battle and capable of projecting power overseas, envisage overhauling outdated command structures, unifying the army, navy and air force along Western lines, and further consolidating the army’s military command regions, now seven, down to four.
READ MORE: INFOGRAPHIC: How one of the proposals breaks down
Such an overhaul is unlikely to be welcomed by all, given that it would involve cutting PLA and armed police personnel from 3 million to 2 million, promoting the role of the navy and air force at the expense of the army, and dispensing with command structures many officers have spent their lives climbing.
Yet keen observers say the commemorations, with their likely boost to morale and patriotism, give President Xi Jinping – who has already culled many of the corrupt military “tigers” standing in the way of reform – a springboard for change.
New command
The PLA’s nerve centre, the so-called four headquarters (General Staff, General Political Department, General Logistics Department and General Armaments Department) would be dissolved, with only the General Staff remaining. Functions of the other three departments would merge into the General Staff and Ministry of National Defence.
In their place would be four new headquarters for the army, navy, air force and a newly created national guard, which would in turn come under the joint command of the Central Military Commission.
The army, currently split into seven military command areas, would be split into just four zones: Northeast, Northwest, Southeast and Southwest.
The national guard would replace the armed police, taking care of domestic security, disaster relief and anti-terrorism.
Smaller, nimbler
Troop numbers, currently at less than 3 million after 10 reductions from a peak of 6.27 million in 1951, would be reduced to 2 million – 1 million in the national guard and 1 million in the army, navy and air force. The army will bear the brunt of the reductions, being cut from 850,000 at present to 490,000. The navy would go from 235,000 to 210,000 and the air force from 398,000 to 300,000.
In April, the PLA Daily reported that the army would cut a large number of non-combat posts, including medical, communications and artist troupes.
Xu Guangyu , a retired PLA major general, said 2 million troops was a reasonable size for China’s future armed forces, but it was too early to say when that figure might be achieved.
The role of the Ministry of National Defence would also change. At present, it takes a mainly ceremonial role, dealing with public relations and military exchanges with other countries. Under the reform plan, local garrisons at provincial, city and county levels would be replaced by defence ministry offices in charge of mobilisation, conscription, militia training and other management tasks in a move to prevent collusion between garrison leaders and local officials.
The future
A Beijing-based retired senior colonel from the navy said the reform proposal was “the future” for the PLA, although it was not an official document and was still under discussion.
“It is a comprehensive reform plan that has combined the ideas of many military reformers, and is definitely the general direction of the army’s future reform.
“The PLA must make fundamental changes if it is going to be a real blue-water navy,” he said.
Military analysts said the overhaul, particularly the more prominent role for the navy, is necessary given the military’s increasing presence overseas. They point to the PLA’s anti-piracy deployment to the Indian Ocean, and its evacuation of more than 600 Chinese and almost 300 foreigners from Yemen this year.
Others, such as military historian Xu Ping , argue that while the PLA should elevate the navy and air force, it would be wrong to follow too closely the US, Britain and Japan.
“Both Japan and Britain are island countries, while the US is on the verge of two oceans. Geography decided that their navies should enjoy equal status with their armies, but China is a continental country like Russia,” said Xu Ping, a PLA senior 8colonel.
A Guangzhou-based veteran disagreed with Xu: “China’s national interests have expanded overseas year after year, with the PLA Navy needing to protect the country’s offshore oil lines and overseas Chinese nationals, and boost its capability in international anti-piracy missions.”
READ MORE: China aims at modern fighting force with drastic overhaul of the People’s Liberation Army
Resistance
Speculation over reform began to circulate in 2009, but the defence ministry has made at least three unusual, high-profile, denials.
Strong resistance from vested interests has put the plan on hold – and it is not the only reform plan under discussion. However, analysts believe Xi’s authority will receive enough of a boost from tomorrow’s parade to enable him to enact the radical move.
Others warn resistance will be at least as strong, if not stronger than, the calls for change.
“No matter what kind of restructure decision is made, the final goal is to reduce the complexity of the bulky PLA system, meaning many senior officials [will be angry],” the Beijing-based retired senior colonel said.
“Such a move would trigger strong resistance in the army, not only among the conservatives, but also senior military officials who have had real power.”
The vested interests of many would be affected not only because departments and units would be merged or dissolved. Some officials would lose rank. Others said the political nature of the PLA – ultimately under the command of the Communist Party – means it is impossible to fully adopt Western models.
The PLA uses a “double-executive system” for combat command and ideology, which requires numerous political commissars in every corps-level military institution to ensure soldiers are politically correct and loyal to the party. This means far more executive officers are required than under Western systems. But losing the political commissars is not an option.
“It’s almost impossible to take out the role of political commissars from the PLA system, because such a move would cripple the party’s political influence in the army,” Xu Ping said.
Long march
Even advocates of the reform say it might take decades for the PLA to evolve into a modern army on par with Western standards.
They believe Xi has taken the first step to shaking up the PLA by pulling down two top generals – Xu Caihou and Guo Bo8xiong – who were running the army when former president Hu Jintao , who had little military background, was chairman of the CMC. Xu has since died from cancer while Guo was handed to military prosecutors in July on suspicion of %corruption.
In their place, Xi has promoted his own men, recently advancing 10 senior PLA officials to full generals in an echo of a move in 2013 in which he promoted two batches of officers to that rank.
All reform needs to be step by step
“All reform needs to be step by step. Xi focused first on his corruption crackdown and cultivated his own governing team to occupy the army’s leadership, otherwise, no real reform could be implemented,” the senior colonel from the navy said.
He said the magnitude of the reform was too great to be done in one go. Xi might find the most practical part of the plan was the move to replace the seven military area commands with four.
“For other parts of the plan, Xi may need to leave them to his successor to carry out,” he said.
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