Showdown in the South China Sea: how ruling by Permanent Court of Arbitration may play out in Asia
China and the US are likely to clash further in the contested waters following the decision in case brought by Philippines
Tensions have flared in the Asia-Pacific region just weeks before a key international court ruling on claims in the South China Sea, with nations growing increasingly embroiled in a war of words.
Beijing claims much of the South China Sea, putting it at odds with four other nations, along with Taiwan. Manila wants the court to declare that Beijing’s claims must comply with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, to which both the Philippines and China are parties. Beijing has refused to participate in the case before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague and said it would not accept the decision, which could come this month or in June.
Washington has shown a determination to maintain what it calls freedom of navigation throughout the trade route, and US President Barack Obama has said his nation would hold China to account if Beijing chose to go against international rules and norms, without elaborating.
CHINA’S BACKERS
Beijing claims that more than a dozen nations in Asia, Europe and Africa have lent at least partial support to China’s argument that territorial disputes should be addressed solely by the nations directly involved, without interference from non-claimants. Topping the list of allies are Russia, India, Poland, Sudan, Pakistan, Belarus as well as rival claimant Brunei.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has taken a swipe at the process, with Ouyang Yujing, head of the department of boundary and ocean affairs, saying last week that the arbitration was nothing more than “a political farce in the guise of law”. Furthermore, the tribunal had put its impartiality at stake by agreeing to accept the case, despite Beijing’s opposition, Ouyang said.
Why the US will gain nothing from seeking to contain China
State-controlled media have called the case a US-led ruse to fuel anti-Chinese sentiment and contain China. “The South China Sea issues are just an excuse for the US to meddle in regional affairs and stir up tensions in a bid to isolate China,” People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece, said in a commentary on Friday.
Although it is uncertain how Beijing will respond to the ruling, one in Manila’s favour would deal a blow to China’s strategy for territorial claims in the region and set a precedent for rival claimants, analysts said.