What to expect from Asean statement on Hague court’s South China Sea rulings

Southeast Asian nations recently failed to get tough with China over territorial disputes in the South China Sea but they’re still likely to come up with a joint statement on an international tribunal’s impending rulings on China’s extensive claims.

With the rulings by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague expected next week, observers say the credibility of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will be at stake if the bloc fails to find a common stance on the case the Philippines brought against China.

Asean will be keen to move on from last month’s diplomatic debacle, when it rescinded an unusually tough statement on China just hours after it was issued on June 14 at the end of a meeting between China’s foreign minister and Asean foreign ministers in Kunming.

But, more importantly, say diplomatic analysts, the bloc’s 10 members need to demonstrate they can set aside their differences and avoid Asean being further undermined by the divisive issue of how to deal with an increasingly assertive China.

“I think Asean would lose even more credibility than it has already if it didn’t make a statement [in response to the tribunal’s rulings], so I think it is likely,” said Alexander Neill, a researcher at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.