Chinese scholars look to a Trump administration with hope and concern
President-elect’s pledges but lack of policy during campaign keep experts guessing
The surprising victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election has left many Chinese experts guessing what will come next for China, Taiwan and Sino-US ties under a Trump administration.
Following are some of their hopes and concerns:
Zhang Zhexin, US affairs expert, Shanghai Institute for International Studies
Three themes deserve attention: security, economy and talent competition.
In terms of security, the first half of 2017 might be a “dangerous period” for Sino-US ties. President-elect Trump is expected to play tough in the Asia Pacific region in the first half of 2017 to portray a powerful presidential image – for instance, the United States may have more frequent military exercises in the South China Sea or the East China Sea. China, of course, will respond firmly. Since the communication channels between Beijing and Trump’s team are not smooth, China will choose to play hardball as well. As a result, the probability of a military collision will increase. It will take some time to go through this dangerous period before China can develop a sort of strategic mutual trust with the new US president.