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Trump-Xi Jinping summit: The issues
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US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is welcomed by Chinese President Xi Jinping before their bilateral meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 19. Photo: Zuma Press

Xi and Trump tipped to play down Taiwan at Florida summit

Experts anticipate trade and North Korea to dominate meeting, overriding status of Taiwan

Beijing will push to further marginalise Taiwan in the Sino-US relationship during next week’s summit between President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump, observers say.

The summit is expected to be dominated by trade issues and North Korea’s nuclear development, but the leaders may agree to play down Taiwan, observers on the mainland and self-ruled island said.

“It’s inevitable for Taiwan to be marginalised since the two countries have more important issues to discuss, said Tang Shao-cheng, an international relations expert at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University.

“If Beijing shows willingness to cooperate with Washington in trade and to exert more pressure on Pyongyang, Washington might in turn play down Taiwan.”

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, centre, visits the Tsoying navy base in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan on March 21. Photo: AFP

Before taking office, Trump angered Beijing by accepting a congratulatory phone call from Tsai Ing-wen, the island’s pro-independence leader, and hinted he might reconsider it recognition of the one-China policy. Beijing warned at the time that such a move would jeopardise Sino-US relations.

However, in a phone call with Xi in February, Trump said Washington would honour the one-China policy, which regards Taiwan as part of China.

Despite that conversation, observers said Beijing is still worried about Trump’s unpredictability and Xi is expected to seek further reassurance in their talks.

Shi Xiangpeng, a former Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference delegate, said Trump’s business style made Beijing fear he might use the self-ruled island in negotiations with Beijing at any time.

Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, but promised to protect the island against risks of war. In late December, the United States passed the 2017 National Defence Authorisation Act, which included a section on senior military exchanges between Taiwan and the US.

Reuters has suggested the Trump administration is crafting a major new arms package for Taiwan that could include advanced rocket systems and anti-ship missiles to defend against the mainland, but experts said the fundamentals of the relationship between Taiwan and the US would not be changed drastically by the summit.

“From what US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said in Beijing, the US will cooperate with China on major issues so Taiwan affairs, relatively tiny when compared to trade and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, will be placed aside by both countries,” said Liu Jiayan, a Taiwan affairs researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

“US arms sales to Taiwan will probably continue, but in the short term, I believe Trump won’t hype them and will try to minimise any negative effects.”

During his visit to Beijing on March 18 and 19, Tillerson said the US would like to develop its relationship with China in a non-confrontational, mutually respectful and cooperative manner.

Zhu Weidong, deputy director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the summit between Xi and Trump would send a signal that China and the US were cooperating.

“Taiwan has no room to secure more gains by getting closer ties with the US,” he said at a cross-strait affairs forum held by the C S Culture Foundation in Hong Kong on Tuesday.

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